Pointbreak Expert Advisor Final Review, Week 5, C'est Finit

After five weeks of trading the Pointbreak expert advisor and looking closely at the way it closes and opens trades I have just one opinion, for me, c'est finit, it is finished.

Last week I wrote a post which was fairly optimistic about the trading of the Pointbreak expert advisor. I said that I was convinced about the trading strategy, it's closing and opening mechanisms, etc. But well, to err is human. The expert advisor itself has shown me this week how all I believed it was supposed to do was incorrect.

I had the following notions about Pointbreak (maybe you have them too) . I though that the expert :

- should make profits when there is a strong trend
- was supposed to keep draw down at a low level (below 7% at least)
- is supposed to give a 10% annual return
- controls draw down effectively

This week, Pointbreak showed me how all of them (except the 10% annual return which I did not prove or disprove) are - in my opinion - not entirely correct. The expert advisor managed to obtain a massive open draw down (for the conservative setting) which was above 9%. This puts the annual risk reward ratio in the 1:1 area, something that is way too risky for the amount of profit I am waiting to obtain.

The EUR/USD also clearly trended upwards from the beginning of this week (see chart below). Pointbreak didn't show this on it's results, only increasing it's open draw down as it accumulated sell orders (something I wouldn't have expected it to do).


This puts a question on my mind. How much does it have to accumulate to realize a loss ? It is clear on my mind that if it didn't close trades with a 9% open draw down then this may happen with a larger loss, this for me, to win only a 10% yearly profit (as they say this is what they guarantee) , is clearly unacceptable.

This of course, has made me decide to stop trading the Pointbreak expert advisor. My final opinion on this expert advisor is then pretty clear. I consider it - through careful examination of forward testing results - to be extremely risky for the amount of profit obtained. I consider the risk of a massive draw down due to sudden market movements a reality and I also consider the margin requirement of Pointbreak to be excessive for it's risk reward ratio.

The expert has clearly showed me that it does not catch trends as accurately as I would have liked, it also showed me that it does not close positions even on a 9% open draw down and it also showed me that profit accumulation is excessively slow and accompanied with an almost hidden open draw down risk. You have seen my comments (both positive and negative) on the forward testing results. You can see the trading statement here. Judge for yourselves.

Pointbreak, Week 5, Still on the Race

As I mentioned on my last post about the Pointbreak expert advisor, I was concerned about the possibility of massive large open draw down with this expert. I even made a comparison between Pointbreak and a grid trading system which was the feeling Pointbreak was giving me at the time.

Now I have to say, Pointbreak is really nothing like a grid system. I have watched the expert closely this week, focusing on the way it opened and closed it's positions. The expert knows when it has a large draw down and acts accordingly.

When the ea was facing a nearly 5-10% open draw down last week, I was a bit concerned about it being killed by the ranging market. Although my concerns were quiet well founded, I have to say that they don't exist anymore. This week has showed me how Pointbreak behaves in "dark times" and the behavior has been what I had been told. Pointbreak will indeed suffer in ranging markets, but it is designed to survive them and ride trends thereafter.

Pointbreak has not lost the profit it has made, neither has it increased the open draw down it suffered from last week, the expert remains in a battle against it's open draw down, waiting for the tides to calm and a clear trend to continue. I also analyzed the chart provided by the detailed statement. I have to say, it looks like a very conservative profitable expert advisor. The statement as always, can be seen here.

Pointbreak, Week 4, Ranging Down the Hill

As I have buttressed in my previews Poinbreak reviews, this expert advisor does quiet badly in ranging markets. This week was the complete confirmation of this fact with an even larger range on the EUR/USD pair.

As I have analyzed Pointbreak's moves for the past week, I have realized that Pointbreak set itself up as if the pair would have continued through 1.4900 up to 1.5000. As we all now, the pair did quiet the opposite and bounced back to the 1.46 figures. This frustrated Pointbreak's attempts to elucidate a trend and quiet frankly ended with a large open draw down after the pair did it's rebound.

This I think is the worst possible market condition for Pointbreak a 200-300 pip range in which the market continuously tricks the pair into thinking that a trend has been established when in fact it just reverses.

Up to this point, pointbreak has an open draw down of almost 1500, which puts this expert at a not very comfortable level (almost 10% open draw down). It is kind of feeling like a grid system right now and quiet honestly I am not digging this very much.

I do hope that Pointbreak will recover and indeed manage to stablish a trend the next couple of weeks. While this happens we get to see how this expert reacts to harsh market condition. The statement, as always, can be viewed here.

Pointbreak, Week 3, Ranging Market, Ouch !

Throughout all my Pointbreak reviews I have clearly stated that Pointbreak is a trend following expert advisor. It does extremely well in trending markets, always locking in profit when such a market setup occurs.

And then ranges happen. Pointbreak does very poorly in ranging markets as we would have expected from both the ea logic and the information given to us by the expert's creators. This week has been clearly very rangy in the EUR/USD pair and of course, Pointbreak has accumulated significant draw down. I have to say it does not surprise me as I had been warned before about the temporary draw down on this kind of market.

This week or weeks are likely to be an endurance test for this expert advisor. We will see how pointbreak handles ranging markets and we will see if it amounts to draw down below the 10% threshold which would be unacceptable for such conservative trading.

Well, the EUR/USD is mainly a trending pair so we will most likely see the ea come back to life when the pair starts trending again - which is by far - most of the time. As always you can check the trading statement here.

Pointbreak, Week 2, Action !

As I wrote last week, I have been amazed by the Pointbreak expert advisor. I quiet like it's ability to follow trends and the way it hedges, pyramids, closes, etc.

This week was a perfect example of Pointbreak's different closing techniques. The week found a lot of hesitation on the EUR/USD pair with a very rangy tendency. This of course, is not the ideal setup for Pointbreak which is a mainly trending expert advisor.

Finding itself in a somehow rangy market, Pointbreak has now many positions opened with a lot of draw down. Although actual draw down has not managed to go beyond 1.60% which is very good news for conservative traders like me.

You can also see the equity curve of Pointbreak which is somehow a pattern I have been able to find amongst profitable experts. Their equity curves are not like straight lines, sinusoidal waves or the like. The curves of profitable experts look a lot like an actual currency uptrend. They go up but retrace every now and then.

I have enjoyed watching Pointbreak a lot and I hope we have big trends the following weeks which will deeply contribute to Pointbreak's equity. Since I am mainly a contrarian trader, I do expect the EUR/USD to hit 1.5, which will involve a massive trend with juicy profits for this expert.

As always, you can get the current statement here.

Pointbreak, Week 1, I like what I see !

This is the first review I will be writing for the Pointbreak expert advisor built for the metatrader 4 platform. As you know, I started to test this expert advisor a week ago as a personal request from the maker.

I am always skeptical with new expert advisors (anyone who has been into them for a while would!) but Pointbreak has been like a glimpse of light at the end of the tunnel.

Many expert advisor makers are always talking a lot about their expert's amazing profits, low draw downs, etc. They in fact talk the talk, but 99% of them do not walk the walk. As I have told you many times, they are based on unreal assumptions.

Pointbreak has surprised me, challenging some of my core beliefs. Pointbreak does not use a fixed stoploss, it is thus subject to massive drawdown. This, unlike other experts, is hedged with the fact that this expert uses amazing money management, being very conservative while it trades. This also shines against the fact that it is one of the most aggressive experts I have ever seen, it stays on the market all the time.

I have watched it's trading method along this week and I have found it to be rather splendid. It does a pyramid like scheme where it opens positions in several directions, following the trend. This does not mean that Pointbreak would "die" in a ranging market. Pointbreak will then use an alternative method to reduce draw down. Since the EUR/USD trends most of the time, balance is greatly shifted towards the trader.

Pointbreak could, in fact, turn into my personal favourite, definitely a keeper. We will see how it does next month. The statement can be seen here. Here is screen shot of the expert in action. You can always find the ea here.
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