Sunday, November 29, 2009

Forex Expert Advisors : FX Profit Mountain, an Unbiased Review

Along yesterday's search for expert advisors I happened to find another trading system called FX Profit Mountain. Today I want to dedicate this post to the review and evaluation of this automated trading system. This review, as all the other reviews, will evaluate the claims made by the authors of the EA against the evidence provided. After doing this I will be able to see if the EA fulfills my criteria for long term profitability and I'll be able to say whether or not it is worth buying and testing.

The FX profit mountain website is a little bit special in the sense that it addresses the main paradigm of expert advisor trading. The website explains (sort of) what a person generally has to do to become a profitable trader and what the characteristics of a profitable trader are. After that it plays on the fact that the trading of a profitable trader can be "automatized" by a trading system and used in an algorithmic fashion. This is what is usually believed by people who enter the world of forex automated trading, and they couldn't be more wrong. A computer is a computer and human is a human. To trade with a computer is to trade with a computer and translating the way a human trades into a computer is (right now) impossible unless the trader you are "translating" trades like a robot, that is, purely mechanical and non discretionary trading with very rigid rules. As a matter of fact, non of the traders I know trade with rigid, mechanical, non-discretionary rules.

But lets go on with the EA. The Fx profit mountain website actually makes little claims on their main webpage and only when we go into the performance section we start to see some claims of profitability. These results, coming from someone who wants to sell a system to the public are pathetic to say the least. These people expect us to try a system they have tested in live/demo for less than a month and they expect us to believe a plotted excel curve of profits in 2008 without any evidence of the actual trades ? What are these people thinking ?

You would have to do much better than that. Where are the backtests from 2000 ? Where are the months from Aug to Nov in the 2009 live test ? There are just too many holes in these guys results. These guys, like 99% of the guys out there are just selling a dream, not a trading system. Why do they say that their system is profitable when they clearly do not show the evidence to back this up ? Why are some months missing that should obviously be there ? The answer is quiet simple, the system most likely showed bad results during those months, or it was a demo account that was closed. Either way, if you are serious about selling a system you should be the first one to use it.

I mean, I don't even sell the god's gift ATR and I use it on personal and managed accounts, I would never recommend to trade something I don't trade personally. If you are an EA seller and you want other people to risk their money in a trading system you should be the first one to get behind your system and invest capital in it. Why would people invest in something you don't ?

Of course, the lack of evidence and the obvious "holes" in the evidence shown are more than enough to discard all the claims made by the people who sell the FX profit mountain system. The system is therefore, in my opinion, not worth buying or testing. If you want to learn more about the systems I trade personally and how you too can program and design your own automated long term profitable trading systems (it is not that hard :)) please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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