Monday, November 30, 2009

Forex Expert Advisors: Forex Warlord, an Unbiased Review

Two or three days ago a customer suggested the Forex Warlord System for Review. Since more people may be interested in the review of this trading system I decided to publish a review about it today. As always, my review will look at the claims made by the author of the EA and the evidence the author has to back them up. After analyzing this evidence as well as any statements and information about the expert's technique on its website I will tell you if the system fulfills my criteria for long term profitability and if it is or is not worth buying and testing.

This trading system is made by a guy that goes by the name of "Paul Liburd", I have never heard of him and I don't have the slightest idea if he is a successful trader or not. For all I know, this guy is just someone trying to sell an expert advisor. Is there any evidence of his success as a manual trader ? Does he show any statements of accounts he has traded profitably ? Then why does he say he is a successful manual trader ? It makes no say that if he is not going to show any statements. The fact that he is also the author of forex accumulator points to the fact that he is just a guy trying to sell his automated trading systems which may or may not work. God knows if he is an actual person or just a figment of someones imagination.

However we are not here to discuss if Mr. Liburd exists but we are here to discuss if the system he presents is or is not as profitable as he says. The claims he makes are actually all based on simulation. The few partial screenshots of winning trades he shows like the "38500 in 5 trades, nos loss" screenshot are just not believable unless we can get access to the statement. Any system can have 5 consecutive loses or profits, I don't care about those small aspects of trading. From the partial backtesting result shown we can see that the EA has a 10 to 1 risk to reward ratio. Talk about unsound trading tactics ! Of course, this EA is profitable in backtesting because, as many, it is probably made to take advantage of backtesting vulnerabilities that can be exploited. The result with this kind of EA is usually that in live testing profitability diminishes a lot and therefore the very unfavorable risk to reward ratio cashes on the market exposure and kills the system.

Are the backtests valid ? Well, there are NO live tests to confirm that they are, therefore we assume they are NOT because it is the most probable scenario. We always need to have back/live testing consistency in order to use backtesting as valid evidence of profitability. This guy is simply crazy if he thinks he can sell a system to knowledgeable traders with such scarce and incomplete proof. Why is the backtesting statement not available ? Why doesn't he show the dates ? Why are they no live tests if his system is so profitable ?

And what about the "manual performance graph" ? Please, I could make that in excel in ten minutes. Show us a REAL account with investor access we can believe and we will believe you got those results. Anyone can say anything and expect to be believed but it is just too bad that there are people out there willing to lie so bluntly. Of course, I will apologize for saying this and I will redo my review is evidenced is shown to backup every claim made on the website. I would like investor access to the statements of the manual system as well as 10 year backtests and live tests to confirm backtesting validity. Why do I feel I will never get this info ?

Because of all the things I have said before I consider this system NOT worth buying or testing until all the necessary evidence to believe the claims is available. Meanwhile, if you would like to learn more about automated trading system evaluation and the requirements for long term automated profitable trading please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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