Saturday, September 5, 2009

Forex Expert Advisor : London Sunrise EA an unbiased review

After about 8 requests by both customers and website visitors I decided to review the london sunrise expert advisor. I have to say that I had refrained from reviewing this expert advisor because I didn't feel there was enough evidence provided by the author to allow be to write a conclusive review but today after going through the website and the evidence several times, I finally set my mind on it and decided to write this review for the system. As always, this review is unbiased as it can be with nobody paying me anything for saying anything good or bad about the system. As I said in my first post in 2007 and I say today, you have to have a total absence of affiliate links in order to really write an unbiased review about a system.

Now let us start reviewing the london sunrise EA. I have to say, as a sidenote, that their website seems pretty polished and does not have excesive marketing material which I have grown to dislike. The website does seem to try to explain that the london sunrise EA trades EUR/GBP breakouts rather than the scalping FAP turbo tried to do on the ranging periods this pair tends to have. This of course, means that there is an increased probability of catching larger trends but does not necessarily mean that the system is able to do so.

The evidence provided by the authors is quiet small with only two 1000 USD live accounts which have been trading for one and two months respectively. However, trading up until now shows a risk to reward ratio which can be viewed as acceptable with a very intriguing trade that made almost a 10% profit on one of the accounts but not on the other. This makes me doubt things a little bit. Since the EA seems to have an internal take profit mechanism it seems odd that the EA generated a trade with such a high profit when the presence of a trailing stop is not at all evident when looking at the other trades. It seems like the trade was just left open because the EA failed to close it and then it was closed with a huge profit after the market moved in favor of the trade in a favorable coincidence.

We have no way to say this is or this is not the case since investor access to the live accounts is not granted. However, the fact that no trade like this one has taken place on the other live account grants to some extent that my above hypothesis is at worst, plausible.

Another matter of interest is that no backtesting statements are provided by the creators of the EA. Of course, backtesting a pair like the EUR/GBP with positions being closed with low targets as the ones we see on the live tests do hint that backtesting could be seriously flaud for this EA but nonetheless, it would be interesting to see at least a 10 year backtest of this EA to see if any useful information is seen at all.

Of course, right now the evidence for long term profitability for this EA is completely lacking. We have two months of live testing on two different brokers which do give hints about the experts trading style but does not at all say anything about its possible draw down targets and market exposure. Needless to say, I consider the london sunrise expert advisor not worth buying and I would say I would not be able to change my opinion unless we see either a 10 year backtest with a backtest of the 2 months of live testing showing consistency with it or at least a one year backtesting which would give us a better idea about this system.

People often buy this systems without thinking how poorly tested they are, testing takes time but it rewards you with a true picture of your system. Right now you could buy this system and it could wipe your account in a few months, I see no evidence to the contrary, it could also turn out to be profitable. It is just impossible to tell with any certainty right now. As I always say, the burden of proof is on the creator of the EA not on our live accounts so it is extremely unwise to take such a risk with your hard earned money.

If you would like to learn more about expert advisor evaluation and how you can start to profit with a free long term profitable trading system with realistic profit and loss targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed this article !

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