Friday, February 22, 2008

Recommended Expert Advisors

My objective throughout this past few months has undoubtedly been the finding of a consistently profitable expert advisor with small draw down and a good risk to reward ratio. I have stated many times that I would settle for a 50% yearly profit with a 10 % maximal draw down and an open draw down that never exceeded 2%. That is a lot to ask for, if you ask an experienced trader, ea programmer, etc.

So after this much time doing forward testing, back testing and looking closely at the trading method of various commercial expert advisors. I have to say I truly recommend... Well, I really don't recommend any of them. This could have been the expected result from the beginning, but the sad truth is, I really cannot, on good faith, recommend to any of you any of the experts, free or commercial, I have tested so far. Here is a little overview on the whys, for each of the experts. Take this comments with a lot of seriousness and remember that it is your money that is being risked in live trading.

Doubleplay v3.5-4.0 : Not recommended because of the variability of monthly results and relative draw downs. I see Doubleplay now as an expert advisor with some dazzling months that has failed to keep up with a 10% profit it promised to deliver. I see it's performance as rather obscure and I would abstain from buying it until we have results for at least a year of forward testing.

Pointbreak : Not recommended due to it's really high open draw down relative to yearly profit promised. You are risking up to a 12% just to receive a 10% yearly profit. Makes no sense to me and makes the ea subject to much harder loses in the event of the right market conditions. Definitely. No.

Fx-Bandit : Not recommended. It's trading logic has clearly showed that it is subject to a margin call in the event of the right market conditions. And trust me, those conditions will come, sooner or later they will.

EUR/JPY Moneymaker : Not recommended. It's closing mechanism seems obscure, it does not have a hard stop loss so news releases or volatility spikes could definitely produce a market draw down

Well, these are the four commercial expert advisors I have been trying. The other non-commercial expert advisors I have tried (see expert portfolio section for names) have failed also due to large draw downs , open or maximal, and inability to produce profits steadily. I hope this little overview has been helpful to you and will let you know that if you buy any of these experts, it will be practically on faith, or at least, not on my recommendation.

Have a good trading !

3 comments:

azjeff said...

Hello everyone.

As I have mentioned the best commercial EA is Pallada. Here is a copy of trades I have made on it over the last few days. It is a half signal/ea system so the user does have to be at the computer in order to operate it. See below statement results. This is last time, I will post on it. On a side note, I have been using Doubleplay on a live account over the last 6 months and it is profitable. Take that for what it is worth. Aa well as the Griffin EA is profitable over the last 3 months on another one of my live accounts. Griffin can be obtained at http://www.forexeasystems.com/datatransfersuccessful.htm
Pallada can be obtained at http://www.tradeways.org/pallada.php
Here are the results for Pallada over the last few days.
Account: 135380 Name: Pallada2 Currency: USD 2008 February 22, 22:00
Closed Transactions:
Ticket Open Time Type Lots Item Price S / L T / P Close Time Price Commission Taxes Swap Profit
3944715 2008.02.19 21:07 balance Deposit 5 000.00
3952717 2008.02.20 02:24 sell 1.00 eurusd 1.4714 0.0000 0.0000 2008.02.20 02:24 1.4716 -12.50 0.00 0.00 -20.00
3952720 2008.02.20 02:24 sell 1.00 eurusd 1.4713 0.0000 0.0000 2008.02.20 02:24 1.4716 -12.50 0.00 0.00 -30.00
3952743 2008.02.20 02:24 sell 2.00 eurusd 1.4714 0.0000 0.0000 2008.02.20 02:25 1.4717 -25.00 0.00 0.00 -60.00
3952751 2008.02.20 02:24 sell 0.20 eurusd 1.4714 0.0000 0.0000 2008.02.20 08:16 1.4703 -2.50 0.00 0.00 22.00
3952753 2008.02.20 02:24 sell 0.20 eurusd 1.4714 0.0000 0.0000 2008.02.20 08:16 1.4703 -2.50 0.00 0.00 22.00
3954666 2008.02.20 03:01 buy 0.10 usdchf 1.0961 1.0962 0.0000 2008.02.20 10:21 1.0982 -1.25 0.00 0.00 19.12
3958549 2008.02.20 05:23 sell 0.20 eurusd 1.4711 0.0000 0.0000 2008.02.20 08:16 1.4703 -2.50 0.00 0.00 16.00
3960670 2008.02.20 06:34 sell 0.10 eurusd 1.4701 1.4700 0.0000 2008.02.20 11:53 1.4679 -1.25 0.00 0.00 22.00
3960679 2008.02.20 06:34 sell 0.10 eurusd 1.4702 1.4701 0.0000 2008.02.20 11:53 1.4681 -1.25 0.00 0.00 21.00
3960684 2008.02.20 06:34 sell 0.10 eurusd 1.4702 1.4701 0.0000 2008.02.20 11:53 1.4681 -1.25 0.00 0.00 21.00
3973761 2008.02.20 03:01 buy 0.10 usdchf 1.0961 1.0991 0.0000 2008.02.20 15:01 1.0991 -1.25 0.00 0.00 27.30
3977186 2008.02.20 06:34 sell 0.10 eurusd 1.4702 1.4666 0.0000 2008.02.20 13:28 1.4666 -1.25 0.00 0.00 36.00
3977191 2008.02.20 06:34 sell 0.10 eurusd 1.4702 1.4665 0.0000 2008.02.20 13:26 1.4665 -1.25 0.00 0.00 37.00
3977199 2008.02.20 06:34 sell 0.10 eurusd 1.4701 1.4648 0.0000 2008.02.20 14:22 1.4648 -1.25 0.00 0.00 53.00
3997316 2008.02.20 18:02 buy 0.20 eurusd 1.4693 0.0000 0.0000 2008.02.20 18:24 1.4679 -2.50 0.00 0.00 -28.00
3997318 2008.02.20 18:02 buy 0.20 eurusd 1.4693 0.0000 0.0000 2008.02.20 18:25 1.4679 -2.50 0.00 0.00 -28.00
4003743 2008.02.20 23:14 sell 0.10 usdchf 1.0985 1.0984 0.0000 2008.02.21 08:54 1.0964 -1.25 0.00 0.00 19.15
4004825 2008.02.21 00:01 sell 0.10 usdchf 1.0984 1.0983 0.0000 2008.02.21 08:54 1.0963 -1.25 0.00 0.00 19.16
4004872 2008.02.21 00:01 sell 0.10 usdchf 1.0984 1.0983 0.0000 2008.02.21 08:54 1.0963 -1.25 0.00 0.00 19.16
4020719 2008.02.21 07:45 sell 0.10 usdchf 1.0974 1.0973 0.0000 2008.02.21 15:53 1.0953 -1.25 0.00 0.00 19.17
4020723 2008.02.21 07:45 buy 0.10 eurusd 1.4740 1.4741 0.0000 2008.02.21 15:40 1.4761 -1.25 0.00 0.00 21.00
4021722 2008.02.21 08:02 sell 0.10 usdchf 1.0978 1.0977 0.0000 2008.02.21 15:46 1.0957 -1.25 0.00 0.00 19.17
4021725 2008.02.21 08:02 sell 0.10 usdchf 1.0978 1.0977 0.0000 2008.02.21 15:46 1.0957 -1.25 0.00 0.00 19.17
4024346 2008.02.20 23:14 sell 0.10 usdchf 1.0985 1.0984 0.0000 2008.02.21 09:29 1.0984 -1.25 0.00 0.00 0.91
4024361 2008.02.21 00:01 sell 0.10 usdchf 1.0984 1.0983 0.0000 2008.02.21 09:29 1.0983 -1.25 0.00 0.00 0.91
4024369 2008.02.21 00:01 sell 0.10 usdchf 1.0984 1.0983 0.0000 2008.02.21 09:29 1.0983 -1.25 0.00 0.00 0.91
4042055 2008.02.21 07:45 buy 0.10 eurusd 1.4740 1.4807 0.0000 2008.02.21 21:29 1.4807 -1.25 0.00 0.00 67.00
4042497 2008.02.21 08:02 sell 0.10 usdchf 1.0978 1.0900 0.0000 2008.02.21 20:19 1.0900 -1.25 0.00 0.00 71.56
4042522 2008.02.21 08:02 sell 0.10 usdchf 1.0978 1.0900 0.0000 2008.02.21 20:19 1.0900 -1.25 0.00 0.00 71.56
4042761 2008.02.21 07:45 sell 0.10 usdchf 1.0974 1.0900 0.0000 2008.02.21 20:19 1.0900 -1.25 0.00 0.00 67.89
4062750 2008.02.22 08:03 sell 0.10 eurjpy 158.79 158.78 0.00 2008.02.22 08:11 158.58 -1.25 0.00 0.00 19.59
4062753 2008.02.22 08:03 sell 0.10 eurjpy 158.79 158.78 0.00 2008.02.22 08:11 158.58 -1.25 0.00 0.00 19.59
4062952 2008.02.22 08:08 sell 0.20 chfjpy 98.34 0.00 0.00 2008.02.22 09:20 98.53 -2.50 0.00 0.00 -35.44
4063081 2008.02.22 08:03 sell 0.10 eurjpy 158.79 158.78 0.00 2008.02.22 08:16 158.78 -1.25 0.00 0.00 0.93
4063084 2008.02.22 08:03 sell 0.10 eurjpy 158.79 158.78 0.00 2008.02.22 08:16 158.78 -1.25 0.00 0.00 0.93
-97.50 0.00 0.00 552.74
Closed P/L: 455.24
Open Trades:
Ticket Open Time Type Lots Item Price S / L T / P Price Commission Taxes Swap Profit
No transactions
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Floating P/L: 0.00
Working Orders:
Ticket Open Time Type Lots Item Price S / L T / P Market Price
No transactions

Summary:
Deposit/Withdrawal: 5 000.00 Credit Facility: 0.00
Closed Trade P/L: 455.24 Floating P/L: 0.00 Margin: 0.00
Balance: 5 455.24 Equity: 5 455.24 Free Margin: 5 455.24

Details:
Graph
Gross Profit: 715.84 Gross Loss: 260.60 Total Net Profit: 455.24
Profit Factor: 2.75 Expected Payoff: 13.01
Absolute Drawdown: 160.00 Maximal Drawdown: 160.00 (3.20%) Relative Drawdown: 3.20% (160.00)

Total Trades: 35 Short Positions (won %): 29 (68.97%) Long Positions (won %): 6 (66.67%)
Profit Trades (% of total): 24 (68.57%) Loss trades (% of total): 11 (31.43%)
Largest profit trade: 70.31 loss trade: -85.00
Average profit trade: 29.83 loss trade: -23.69
Maximum consecutive wins ($): 11 (278.92) consecutive losses ($): 3 (-160.00)
Maximal consecutive profit (count): 383.20 (10) consecutive loss (count): -160.00 (3)
Average consecutive wins: 8 consecutive losses: 3

Damien Trotman said...

Hey how is the griffin ea and Doubleplay 4.0 stack up to Pallada?

Email me back at damientrotman@live.com

Cyber Pasta said...

Just for your consideration: Cabblebot Expert Advisor, at this moment Cablebot is for private use till I have 1 year forward results. I've said forward results, no forward test, I use it on live account with real money.

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