Showing posts with label Forgaex Megadroid. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Forgaex Megadroid. Show all posts

Monday, February 22, 2010

Why Megadroid will Likely Wipe Your Account... I am NOT Kidding.

I have been becoming more and more worried about the large number of people who seem to be buying and using the megadroid expert advisor with seemingly successful results without realising the very large market exposure and risk they are putting their accounts into. Today I want to dedicate this post to the discussion of megadroid's evidence for long term profitability and why its trading tactics will lead to an account wipeout in the future with a very high probability. I want to write this post to know that I did my best to warn current Megadroid users about the potential hazards of this trading system. I want to make clear before I start that I do not write this post because I am "jelous" or "offended" by the profitability of other forex traders or because I want to sell my own systems. On the absolute contrary, I write this post out of genuine concern for people's capital safety and NOT to try to sell you anything. In fact, anyone looking for long term profitability can use one of my systems, Watukushay For Everyone, which I make available for absolutely NO charge.

I have to say that I understand the reasons why so many people may seem interested in trading the megadroid trading system. The system seems to have a wealth of both backtesting and live testing information provided by the author with a significant amount of third party tests which shows the expert to be profitable amongst time periods of at least 6 months on different brokers on live accounts. What is so wrong with megadroid then that compelled me to write this post ? Several things.

To start from the beginning, the information provided by the author is not confirmed by any third party and there have always been rumors about the author omitting loses from the statements, clearly we cannot trust the live account results of an EA seller without investor access or true third party confirmation such as that provided by myfxbook. There also seems to be significant discrepancies between simulations and live trading results (over longer periods of testing) which are definitely a result of one minute interpolation errors. Periods of 6 months of live testing compared to simulations show disparity related to the number of profitable and losing trades and great broker dependency between different tests, it then becomes evident that megadroid may be exposed to a much higher draw down than that predicted by backtesting results.

However the thing that worries me the most is the fact that the Megadroid expert advisor is a hidden Martingale. The EA loses with little frequency (which is needed even for break even results due to the very unfavorable risk to reward ratio of the trading system) but it doubles its lot size when it hits its big stoploss. The fact is that if you hit a series of consecutive loses of even as little as 3 or 4 loses, you could lose your entire account. Megadroid is a very risky trading system and it always exposes a VERY significant amount of capital 10-20% on every trade. Add a martingale to that and you have a time bomb.

To me, the current state of the megadroid expert advisor is like that of a Ponzi scheme when it gains popularity. Everyone is happy, many people are making money and finally the cash flow is so huge that the Ponzi scheme becomes unsustainable and the inevitable total loses of capital happen. Megadroid may remain profitable for more time, but the truth is that the system's market exposure is simply absurd, its a hidden martingale, a wolf in sheep clothing andI have absolutely no doubt that it WILL show its true colors as time passes by.

I hope that my arguments have been strong enough to convince those willing to listen to third party arguments to NOT trade this trading system as its trading tactics are simply unsound and its money management is simply against everything experienced traders would ever do. As I said on the beginning of this post, for those looking for long term profitability there is always Wautukushay FE. If you are however interested in a true understanding of the development of long term profitable system with sound trading tactics so that you can design and trade your own long term profitable systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Monday, April 6, 2009

Forex Expert Advisors : Forex Megadroid an Unbiased Review

During the past two weeks I have received a lot of requests to take a look into the new forex expert advisor "forex megadroid". To my surprise, you already find reviews floating around the net about this expert advisor's profitability. Well, I would like to say I am surprised about this but as soon as any product is launched you see a ton of people wanting the juicy referral bonuces offered by the product sellers. No wonder why people buy this things with such haste.

As almost all the time, I find the forex megadroid's website exceedingly cheesy. Well, it is obviously aimed at people who don't know almost anything abou the forex market, any experienced forex trader would not hesistate to exit the website after a general overview of the site's content. There are many reasons why I would never even consider buying this piece of software, but I'll start from the beginning.

First, backtesting evidence is no evidence of profitability. Yes, I know the website is designed by very good marketing people who want to make you feel like all the evidence is just a reinforcement of what is evidently true, the words and phrases are also designed to make you feel the creators are simpathetic towards you and will most definetely never try to rip you off, so most people will just watch the nice equity curves and buy the expert. But again, backtesting evidence is no evidence of profitability, there can be people who are very good at exploiting the one minute interpolation errors of the metatrader backtester or even exploit other critical errors of the software. So no, it is not good enough for me. Again, the burden of proof is on the ea creators NOT on our live accounts so let them give us a live account's investor access password and we will see if they can walk the walk.

Second, quadruple your money ? Come on. This is just common sense. I spoke to a fellow forex trader yesterday about this and showed him the claims and well, if I had an ea that could guarantee just 200% a year in profits I would defienetely become a fund manager and code that in tradestation to make good amounts of money. Why are they selling it ? Moreover, why are they selling you something that is not proven on live account we can access, see and verify ? The answer is obvious and the fact that they have the courage to try to sell something that is not very rigurously tested and verified just horrifies me. I mean, if I was selling the forex megadroid I would not be able to sleep at night, but then again, it seems that would just be me.

Broker manipulation. Yes, broker manipulation happens, but what systems do broker manipulation hurts the most ? Systems that rely on very unsound forms of trading. Like ripping very small profits from the market with huge risk to reward ratios (again, another point I do not like about this expert's trading). Brokers generally do not have anything to do against long term sound system strategies like (in my opinion) the strategies used by God's Gift or DTS-1.

So, in my opinion, the forex megadroid is not worth buying. I know that the author's claims are exiting and that we as honest people, tend to believe that other people are also honest but, we need to be a little bit scientific here. We need evidence of profitability and of every claim they are making. They say every market condition ? Broker independence ? Quadruple your money ? Then we need at least 20 live accounts on 20 different brokers for one year, accounts we have the investor passwords to and that we can confirm are running the ea 24/7, then we will start to believe their claims.

Again, as I have said many times, if it is too good to be true, then it probably is. Don't get hyped, don't buy something that is not rigourously proven, do not let someone's claims cloud your judgement. We all want to make money in the forex market, but stay calm, let them prove their claims. Up until now, the forex megadroid fail to deliver enough proves to backup their claims, therefore, I consider their software NOT worth buying. If you would like to learn more about other commercial and free systems I have tested and reviewed please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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