After doing my weekly research into the realm of recently released trading systems I found a new expert advisor called Forex Over Drive. On today's post I will talk about this seemingly new trading system, in particular I will review this expert advisor based on the evidence of profitability provided on its website comparing it with the claims made by the authors. In virtue of this evidence I will also do my best to evaluate part of the trading system's trading techniques and their like hood of achieving long term profitability. The Forex Over Drive expert advisor claims to be able to make a 150% profit every month, can it live up to its claims ? Is there enough evidence for the authors to say this ? Will this EA be worth buying and testing ? We'll find out within the next few paragraphs.
I have to start this review by saying that the Forex Over Drive expert advisor seems to aim for higher profit targets than most of the other trading system you see on the market. However, the evidence which is found on the website to backup this claims is - not surprisingly - incomplete, misleading and inaccurate. The people at Forex Over Drive mention that they put their trading system to the test through a whole year but what they show us after mentioning this is a mere backtesting result. Worse than this is the fact that the backtesting result shown has been obviously edited to remove key information which would have helped us evaluate the validity of the simulations (although live testing is the only true validation) , for example, the time frame and dates used have been edited out leaving us with the doubt of which time frame the EA is using and what period the simulation tackled. Does the simulation cover one week, one year, one month ? Does the expert trade on the 15 minute, daily, weekly charts ? This information is key since simulations on lower time frames (particularly lower than 30 minutes) are bound to be inaccurate due to the smaller number of reference points per bar and higher importance of one minute interpolation errors.
Then they show us a "statement" which is presented in the form of a "live test" showing us the results of the system. Truth be told, what they show us is nothing more than an html table, there is no way to know if this information is actually taken from a live test or a simple reorganization of the results obtained in a backtest. Again, EA sellers have been known for forging live tests and placing them on their websites and ONLY third party investor-access verified results are worthy of being trusted. Why in the world would you avoid such verification if your results were legit ? The answer is obvious.
When we analyze the trading technique used by the system thing do not improve one bit. The EA has a risk to reward ratio of about 30:1 with a Stop Loss size of about 300 for a Take Profit of about 10 pips. Moreover, the small value of the TP and the large differences between SL and TP will make the appearence and importance of one minute interpolation errors vital. Add to this that the TP is only about 4 to 5 times the spread and you will find that the EA probably suffers a lot from broker dependency and spread widenining/requote related issues which will make its evaluation extremely hard.
To sum it up, the Forex Over Drive trading system lacks any reliable evidence of long term profitability with what seems like a strong willingness to hide information. The authors of this trading system - if they are serious about it - should post 10 year backtesting statements on their websites along with at least 3 months of live testing results showing how spread widening , requotes affect the EA and how this - coupled with one minute interpolation errors - could probably lead to a huge back/live testing inconsistency. Again, remember that the burden of proof is ON the authors of a trading system NOT on our live accounts.
Due to this huge lack of any reliable evidence (lack of 10 year backtests and live/back testing consistency analysis with investor-access verified live tests) I consider this trading system NOT worth buying and testing. If you would like to learn more about reliable automated trading and how you too can learn how to design and code your own long term profitable system to succeed in automated trading please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !
I have to start this review by saying that the Forex Over Drive expert advisor seems to aim for higher profit targets than most of the other trading system you see on the market. However, the evidence which is found on the website to backup this claims is - not surprisingly - incomplete, misleading and inaccurate. The people at Forex Over Drive mention that they put their trading system to the test through a whole year but what they show us after mentioning this is a mere backtesting result. Worse than this is the fact that the backtesting result shown has been obviously edited to remove key information which would have helped us evaluate the validity of the simulations (although live testing is the only true validation) , for example, the time frame and dates used have been edited out leaving us with the doubt of which time frame the EA is using and what period the simulation tackled. Does the simulation cover one week, one year, one month ? Does the expert trade on the 15 minute, daily, weekly charts ? This information is key since simulations on lower time frames (particularly lower than 30 minutes) are bound to be inaccurate due to the smaller number of reference points per bar and higher importance of one minute interpolation errors.
Then they show us a "statement" which is presented in the form of a "live test" showing us the results of the system. Truth be told, what they show us is nothing more than an html table, there is no way to know if this information is actually taken from a live test or a simple reorganization of the results obtained in a backtest. Again, EA sellers have been known for forging live tests and placing them on their websites and ONLY third party investor-access verified results are worthy of being trusted. Why in the world would you avoid such verification if your results were legit ? The answer is obvious.
When we analyze the trading technique used by the system thing do not improve one bit. The EA has a risk to reward ratio of about 30:1 with a Stop Loss size of about 300 for a Take Profit of about 10 pips. Moreover, the small value of the TP and the large differences between SL and TP will make the appearence and importance of one minute interpolation errors vital. Add to this that the TP is only about 4 to 5 times the spread and you will find that the EA probably suffers a lot from broker dependency and spread widenining/requote related issues which will make its evaluation extremely hard.
To sum it up, the Forex Over Drive trading system lacks any reliable evidence of long term profitability with what seems like a strong willingness to hide information. The authors of this trading system - if they are serious about it - should post 10 year backtesting statements on their websites along with at least 3 months of live testing results showing how spread widening , requotes affect the EA and how this - coupled with one minute interpolation errors - could probably lead to a huge back/live testing inconsistency. Again, remember that the burden of proof is ON the authors of a trading system NOT on our live accounts.
Due to this huge lack of any reliable evidence (lack of 10 year backtests and live/back testing consistency analysis with investor-access verified live tests) I consider this trading system NOT worth buying and testing. If you would like to learn more about reliable automated trading and how you too can learn how to design and code your own long term profitable system to succeed in automated trading please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment