Today I am going to write a post about one of the most recently released (and spammed) expert advisors. This system -named forex luger - claims that it is able to "make you very wealthy in a few months". Within the next few paragraphs you will find my review about this trading system and my opinion about these claims. I will go through the evidence available within the expert's website and I will see if it is able to backup such assumptions. After doing this I will tell you my opinion about the expert's tradings strategy based on the system's evidence time and I shall tell you if the system has a chance at being long term profitable and whether or not it is - in my opinion - worth buying and testing.
The forex luger trading systems seems to be like the average commercial expert advisor being sold today. The website starts with very bold claims of extremely high short term profitability and the claim that these assumptions are "backed up" by actual trading. After looking at the whole website we find that this evidence actually does not exist and the conclusions reached by the author of the Forex Luger system is based on nothing but backtesting results.
There are several problems with the backtesting results presented by the author of the EA. Even though the results have a 90% modeling quality and 0 mismatch errors, the fact is that the use of a very low TP makes the contribution of 1 minute interpolation errors extremely important. A proof of this fact is shown as currency pairs become more profitable when the average size of the 1 minute candles becomes larger, effectively the currency pairs which exhibit the most important interpolation errors are the ones which have the highest profitability. This makes backtests absolutely unreliable and the evaluation of long term performance extremely difficult without many years of LIVE trading resutls.
After this we have a "testimonial" which shows a "live" account statement. Please be very aware of the fact that investor access is NOT given. Remember that EA sellers cannot be trusted and if investor access is not available then we cannot confirm that the account is live/demo or even real, it could simply be a fixed statement being uploaded to a mt4 stat provider. Now, the fact that the account seems to be updated frequently points out that it could be at least a demo account, something which is still of no use since scalpers are VERY affected by live execution variables such as requotes, slippage and spread widening. In reality you'll find that most scalpers can be profitable in demo trading but fail or are MANY TIMES less profitable in live trading due to the fact that live trading conditions most of the time disfavor the profitability of scalpers due to the above given reasons.
Looking at the average profit of trades taken by the forex luger system it is very accurate to say that the only way in which this system can be evaluated accurately would be in a live account. Until this is done, there is simply no way in which profitability of any kind can be evaluated. However, evaluating long term profitability will be much harder due to the fact that backtests are unreliable. So in the end at least 5 years of live trading, probably on several brokers, would be needed to say anything about the actual - real - profitability of this trading system. Backtesting results are bound to be VERY unreliable due to interpolation errors and demo trading results are bound to overestimate profitability to great extent owing to the omition of live execution characteristics.
Overall the forex luger system simply has no evidence to backup its claims as the reliability of all the available evidence is extremely questionable. The EA seller would have to put up at least 5 years of live trading results to provide any reliable evidence of profitability, reason why I think this EA will never come to proof it can withstand changes in market conditions. For these reasons I consider the forex luger system NOT worth buying and testing. The evidence shown says nothing and the absence of a live trading statement forfeits any real analysis of the system's trading tactic.
If you would like to learn more about what I have learned in automated trading and how you too can become successful in this area through knowledge and education please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !
The forex luger trading systems seems to be like the average commercial expert advisor being sold today. The website starts with very bold claims of extremely high short term profitability and the claim that these assumptions are "backed up" by actual trading. After looking at the whole website we find that this evidence actually does not exist and the conclusions reached by the author of the Forex Luger system is based on nothing but backtesting results.
There are several problems with the backtesting results presented by the author of the EA. Even though the results have a 90% modeling quality and 0 mismatch errors, the fact is that the use of a very low TP makes the contribution of 1 minute interpolation errors extremely important. A proof of this fact is shown as currency pairs become more profitable when the average size of the 1 minute candles becomes larger, effectively the currency pairs which exhibit the most important interpolation errors are the ones which have the highest profitability. This makes backtests absolutely unreliable and the evaluation of long term performance extremely difficult without many years of LIVE trading resutls.
After this we have a "testimonial" which shows a "live" account statement. Please be very aware of the fact that investor access is NOT given. Remember that EA sellers cannot be trusted and if investor access is not available then we cannot confirm that the account is live/demo or even real, it could simply be a fixed statement being uploaded to a mt4 stat provider. Now, the fact that the account seems to be updated frequently points out that it could be at least a demo account, something which is still of no use since scalpers are VERY affected by live execution variables such as requotes, slippage and spread widening. In reality you'll find that most scalpers can be profitable in demo trading but fail or are MANY TIMES less profitable in live trading due to the fact that live trading conditions most of the time disfavor the profitability of scalpers due to the above given reasons.
Looking at the average profit of trades taken by the forex luger system it is very accurate to say that the only way in which this system can be evaluated accurately would be in a live account. Until this is done, there is simply no way in which profitability of any kind can be evaluated. However, evaluating long term profitability will be much harder due to the fact that backtests are unreliable. So in the end at least 5 years of live trading, probably on several brokers, would be needed to say anything about the actual - real - profitability of this trading system. Backtesting results are bound to be VERY unreliable due to interpolation errors and demo trading results are bound to overestimate profitability to great extent owing to the omition of live execution characteristics.
Overall the forex luger system simply has no evidence to backup its claims as the reliability of all the available evidence is extremely questionable. The EA seller would have to put up at least 5 years of live trading results to provide any reliable evidence of profitability, reason why I think this EA will never come to proof it can withstand changes in market conditions. For these reasons I consider the forex luger system NOT worth buying and testing. The evidence shown says nothing and the absence of a live trading statement forfeits any real analysis of the system's trading tactic.
If you would like to learn more about what I have learned in automated trading and how you too can become successful in this area through knowledge and education please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !
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1 comment:
In 5 trades ForexLugar wiped £700.00 off an account starting with a balance of £1180.00 Totaly crap stop loss control.
before this forex lugar was behaving very nicely and had built up a profit of £180 in 2 weeks on a £1000 account
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