Saturday, April 10, 2010

Forex Expert Advisors : Forex Invincible, an Unbiased Review

Yesterday several website visitors left me messages on the website's chat asking for a review of a new forex expert advisor called "forex invincible". In order to honor their request today I will be doing an in-depth analysis of this trading system. As always I will be evaluating the systems's website comparing the claims made against the evidence available. Through the evidence shown I will also be able to evaluate part of the system's trading technique and give you my opinion about the long term profitability of this trading system. After all this analysis I will then be able to tell you if the forex invincible trading system has enough evidence to consider it worth buying and testing or if it is yet another over-hyped and evidence-lacking trading system. Let us start with the analysis then.

The forex invincible expert advisor starts with a claim of being able to make it after 365 trading days without a single losing trade. Of course we quickly find that this claim is made entirely on the base of backtesting statements which, not surprisingly, are not shown. Why does the creator of the forex invincible trading system show NO backtesting statements ? What is the author so afraid we will discover ? Overall the poor summary of the backtests shown does give as some hints about the trading system. First of all, we see that the system does show a relative draw down figure which could amount to a loss of more than 50% of the initial invested equity (shown on the image below). How can a system with no loses have a relative draw down which is so high ?
The author claims that the system does use a stoploss however since we do not see the backtesting statements it becomes impossible for us to know if this value is being set on trades or not. However, what the backtests shown suggest is that the expert is incurring into open draw down meaning that this "tigh" stop loss values the authors says the system places are probably non-existant. In my mind this system is probably leaving trades opened and the relative draw down we see on the backtests is incurred as a loss when the backtest ends and all these losing trades are closed reason why no equity curve is also shown for an entire backtest (and reason why showing the full statements is avoided).

Then we have some probably made-up pictures of trades showing us "how the expert trades" when in reality these images tell us nothing. There is no way in which we can know that those trades were not simply drawn by hand on some chart rather than true to the real trading technique of the forex invincible trading system. The "streaks of wining trades" shown are also nothing short of a joke, they could be a series of hand picked trades from any trading strategy which had X consecutive profitable trades, something which is definitely not hard to do.

In the end, the seller of the forex invincible trading software is providing us with a lot of hype and absolutely NO trading evidence, no 10 year backtesting statements are shown and MOST importantly there is absolutely NO third party verified live testing statement we can see to really now how this expert advisor trades. Please Mr.EA seller, your customers are NOT retarded. As I have said several times, either you're honest or you're not. What the lack of evidence and proof shows is that this seller is being openly dishonest, hiding evidence he or she has (backtesting statements) and not risking his or her own money on the forex invincible trading system. If it is as good as the author says, then why doesn't he or she put his or her own money into it ? As always, it is different to make an expert advisor to sell, than to make an expert advisor to profit. (the first is much easier to do)

In the light on the absolute lack of reliable evidence I have to say that the forex invincible expert advisor is NOT worth buying and testing, it is only yet another over-hyped system with no reliable evidence of profitability and what seems to be a willingful attitude to hide evidence which could help people better understand the system (and see its unsound tactics which possibly includes trading without any SL). If the author adds a 10 year backtesting statement and at least a 3 month live testing statement with investor access I'll be glad to redo this review.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading systems and how you too can build systems with sound and reliable trading techniques please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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