As always, my weekly search for new expert advisors plus the suggestion of two Asirikuy members has led me to the finding of a new automated trading system called GBPBOT. On today's post I will review this expert advisor based on the evidence provided by the author's website. I will compare the actual facts given by the evidence with the claims made by the creator and we'll be able to see if the trading system is actually able to generate the profits the author claims or if it simply cannot. I am also going to analyze the trading system's trading tactic through the evidence and I will tell you my opinion about the GBPBOT's likehood of being long term profitable. With all this analysis in mind, in the end I will be able to tell you if the expert advisor is worth or NOT worth buying and testing.
I have to say that from the start the GBPBOT website appears to be the same as all the other over-hyped and over-valued expert advisors which are more sold on the virtue of good marketing than on profitability. The website greets us with a very bold claim saying that the system can make more than one million dollars in 19 months. It is not surprising to see that these claims are merely based on simulation which, to make things worse, are NOT even remotely reliable as the modeling quality used is 25%. Who are these guys kidding ? Who are they trying to convince with such a low modeling quality ?It is a FACT that the results obtained with this quality are WORTHLESS since it means either that the data is awfly incomplete or that the EA is trading on the 1 minute time frame, voiding the results due to the one minute interpolation errors.
Going a little bit away from all these worthless backtesting results we can see that the EA has some "live trading" results. To begin with, these live tests are awfly limited and tell us nothing about the profitability of the trading system. The EA has been "live trading" for less than 2 month, a period which is simply too short to say anything. Even if longer live testing periods were available, the complete lack of reliable simulations makes the evaluation of long term profitability extremely difficult. Moreover, the so called "live tests" are not reliable since we don't know if they are real accounts, with live money, or demo accounts or even imaginary accounts. The truth is that these statements can easily be made up or modified to show whatever an EA creator wants to, reason why having investor access to the accounts or investor access verification by a third party (such as myfxbook) is VITAL to believe the results obtained from this so called "live accounts".
Things become even worse for the GBPBOT when we analyze the soundness of its trading technique. From the statements it seems that the GBPBOT uses a trailing stop and a relatively small TP with a very wide and even not strictly limited SL. The lack of an SL within the statements tells us that either there is NOT an SL or the SL is hidden and executed internally. Nonetheless, the backtesting statements do show some loses and these loses appear to be MUCH LARGER than the profitable trades of the EA making it have a very unfavorable risk to reward ratio as shown on the image below. As I said before, the backtesting is unreliable due to the very low modeling quality so profitability is much likely GREATLY overestimated due to this fact.
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-What do we have with the GBPBOT ? We have a trading system with unreliable simulations, very limited unconfirmed live testing and a very unfavorable risk to reward ratio definitely a system NOT worth buying and testing. I would advice the creator of this EA, which also seems to be the creator of other forex automated trading systems, to think a little bit about the traders he or she is selling these systems to, to think about the capital loses he or she is causing and to put more effort and time on testing to show reliable evidence of long term profitability and less time on marketing. To me, this is simply a major flaw in honesty and ethics, who would even consider selling a system without knowing for certain that everything that could be possibly done to confirm its long term profitability has been done ? Apparently many people, something which is very, very sad.
If you would like to learn more about what I have learned about automated trading systems and how you too can learn to design, program and trade long term profitable expert advisors please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !
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2 comments:
I understand what you are saying but how is this a review? You say it is not worth buying and testing but it is worth blindly reviewing with your blind bias? Your review is just as worthless as the product in my view. It is one thing if you bought it, tested it, got your refund, and then trash it but that's not what you are doing now is it? So enough said. Your review is also worthless.
Hello MyOptions,
Thank you for your comment :o). Bear in mind that there is no reason to buy a product for which there is simply NO evidence of profitability. You should read more here http://fxreviews.blogspot.com/2010/01/basics-of-my-reviews-understanding-my.html in order to better understand my reviews. Again, I understand why some people first clash with my style of reviewing after looking at all the other review sites but you'll understand that what I seek are systems for which there is REALIABLE evidence of long term profitability. Otherwise, there is simply no reason to lose my money and time with a system that is simply not going to turn out differently. My reviews help people see through the evidence provided by the author and whether or not it is reliable and a sign of long term profitability. Thanks again for your comment :o) !
Best Regards,
Daniel Fernandez
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