Sunday, March 28, 2010

Forex Expert Advisors : Forex Quake, an Unbiased Review

To end the review of all the recently released automated trading systems I am going to review a new expert advisor called Forex Quake. This trading system claims to be able to produce thousand of dollars in profit with an accuracy higher than 95%. Within this review you will find my analysis of the evidence provided by the author as well as my perspectives about whether or not this evidence is enough to backup the author's claims. I will also analyze the trading system's tactics according to the evidence and in the end I will give you my veredict about whether or not this system is worth buying and testing. Is the Forex Quake the "real deal" or is it just another over-hyped untested trading system which has a lot of marketing behind it but no real evidence to backup its claims ? We'll find out !

The forex quake expert advisor starts its website with a pretty misleading claim of saying that it can make thousands of dollars with 95+ accuracy. This does NOT mean anything. The winning percentage of a trading systems is totally meaningless since the actual risk to reward ratio is needed to calculate if the EA is or is NOT profitable. A trading system can have a winning percentage of 99% and yet be a loser system since the 1% of trades the system loses can account to a lot more than the 99% it profits from, depending on how unfavorable the risk to reward ratio is. Claims of a +95% accuracy only hint to the fact that this trading system uses a very unfavorable risk to reward ratio something which is particularly common for systems which claim to have high accuracies. The claim of making thousands of dollars is also meaningless since no starting capital is mentioned. Can it make thousands of dollars from millions ? from singles ? It is ridiculuous that a starting capital is not mentioned since there is simply no meaning to a simple claim of profit without it being represented as a percentage of a given amount of initial equity.

Then the trading system starts to go further down hill. The "undeniable" evidence of profitability is nothing more than a mere backtesting chart which shows us already the dangers of this system. Added to the fact that the backtesting graph is not accompanied by a statement to know its extent, max draw down, modeling quality, etc, we have the fact that the EA shows "volume spikes" after loses, a sign of a progressive money management system which hints that the EA uses a Martingale or a similar trading tactic to trade.

I am surprised at the fact that the author of forex quake does NOT show ANY reliable evidence of profitability. There are NO ten year backtests or even a backtest with a statement for any given time period, there is NO live testing, NO forward testing and only a bunch of graphs with hand picked, or possibly manually made-in-hindsight trades which tell us NOTHING about this trading system. The creator of this system must start to take his customers a little bit more seriously. This guy is making claims of profitability without the smallest amount of evidence, wrapping people around a story which simply has no actual proven basis in real life. The story says that the guy made a lot of profit using this sytem, then why doesn't this guy show the LIVE accounts statements to prove it ? Why is all this evidence which is supposed to "exist" hidden ?

Of course, due to the enormous lack of evidence, the lack of 10 year backtest (let alone any backtesting statement) and the lack of any live testing evidence (which should be investor access verified if available) I consider this trading system NOT worth buying and testing. The fact that the only backtesting graph hints to the use of progressive money management also points to the account-wiping power this system could have in real live trading. If this sellers provides 10 year backtests with live trading statements of at least 3 months verified through investor access I will rewrite this review to include the new evidence. Meanwhile, this is just another VERY over hyped trading system which has NO reliable evidence of profitability. The evidence pointed out as "undeniable" is a JOKE as it is unverifiable, misleading and lacking. Instead of showing this, the author should show some truly RELIABLE and TRUST WORTHY evidence such as a live account with investor access.

If you would like to learn more about what I have learned from years of experience in automated trading and how you too can invest in the long term using forex expert advisors with sound and realistic risk/profit targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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