This week we had the release of several new expert advisors, reason why for the next few days I will be revieweing all of them within this blog. The first, which I will review today, is an EA I found through some SPAM which got into my inbox, an expert advisor called forex black panther. Within the next few paragraphs you will find my analysis about this trading system, particularly I will focus on the evaluation of the evidence provided by the author and if it is able to backup the claims made on the website. As always, I will also take a look at the expert's trading tactics and I will give you my opinion about the expert's chance of being long term profitable. After doing all this analysis I will then tell you if I consider the forex black panther trading system worth or not worth buying and testing.
First of all, I have to say that the claims made by this guy are pretty bold. The first information we find on the website says that the trading system is able to triple an account in three months and that there is "proof" to show us how this is done. When we scroll down to see the so called "proof" of profitability we find what appears to be a trading statement showing us some results. Is this test live, demo ? You CANNOT know, simply because the account has NO investor access. Remember that commercial EA sellers CANNOT be trusted, if there is NO third party confirmation (like through myfxbook) or an investor access password with account number provided then the results are as good as useless. Anyone can open up notepad and write a statement like the one shown in html without any problems. Why does this guy think that we will just belive that it is real when in reality EA sellers have shown time and time again that they are willing to manipulate and lie about their trading statements and their live/demo character ?
Moreover, we find that this account statement is strangely limited to the first days of February. If this account statement is indeed real, then why isn't it updated LIVE ? Why isn't this done ? It is actually extremely supicious that you would limit the results of a profitable trading system this way. The most probable explanation, if the statement is real, is that the forex black panther did not perform quite well during February which had quite complicated market conditions. So this guy has a lot to explain. Why is the test limited ? Why isn't it live updated and why isn't investor access or third party verification provided ?
Then things actually get a lot more convoluted. The creator of this EA shows backtesting results, which are limited to the past 2 years of testing. Why would the black panther have to limit its testing if it is so profitable ? It is obvious that 10 year backtests can be shown. Why don't we see them on the website ? Then we have something VERY interesting. The author of the EA provides us with backtesting statements of 2010, so we can actually perform a back/"live" testing consistency analysis of a few months of trading. What we get is that the system shows VERY important differences between back and live testing. For example, on January 2010, the "live test" shows just 5 trades, when the backtest shows more than 15. However there are several additional discrepancies between both results. Therefore, profitability is bound to be MUCH LOWER in live testing when compared with backtesting, something which may inevitably increase the draw downs.
Then this guy hangs himself with his own story. He talks about managing thousands, even millions of dollars for a hedge fund using his system. He shows some "evidence" which is actually NOT reliable since it is merely a screenshot of a made html or the screenshot at the end of a demo test. In fact, you could simply open up 10 demo accounts, make opposite trades with very large lot sizes on them and get a demo account which goes from 10K to 100K in a few hours, that is no problem. I believe that this guy should show some respect for his website visitors, if he traded with hedge funds with his system then SHOW US THE STATEMENTS. Why would a person not show statements with third-party confirmation if they indeed traded with a hedge fund ? Why not reveal the name of the hedge fund ? This story is just pure BS. The reality shown by the evidence is much simpler. A guy runs several demo tests or codes some html to show those screenshots, then runs a very limited demo/live test to get some profitability to show.
Can the EA prove that it can triple an account in three months ? If the author provided investor access to the live account then the answer could be yes, for those three months (which is NOT every three months). However, the fact that there is NO back/live testing consistency points to the fact that the profitability of the EA is greatly overestimated and that possibly future results with that risk level will lead to account wipeouts (maybe that happened in February ?). The author should also provide a LIVE UPDATED, live account test to show us the EA is trading in real time something which will prevent fraud to a big extent, of course, providing a myfxbook widget with confirmation would be ideal.
However, in the light of the lack of live/back testing consistency, I am inclined to consider this trading system useless since there is no way in which we can reliably evaluate the system's performance in the past and very extensive live testing would be required to test the system under variable market conditions (to confirm its adaptability). In my mind, the creator of this EA should provide a live updated live test, 10 year backtesting statements and at least a 6 month period of live testing to do a fuller live/back testing consistency analysis. Meanwhile, in the light that the evidence shown cannot be trusted (because of the obvious limitation and lack of verification of the live test and the obvious and intentional limitation of the backtests) and because -even if trusted- the evidence points out to a lack of back/live testing consistency and long term profitability I consider this trading system NOT worth buying and testing.
If you would like to learn more about the systems I have coded or how you can learn how to design and code your OWN systems based on sound trading tactics to achieve long term profitability in forex trading please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !
First of all, I have to say that the claims made by this guy are pretty bold. The first information we find on the website says that the trading system is able to triple an account in three months and that there is "proof" to show us how this is done. When we scroll down to see the so called "proof" of profitability we find what appears to be a trading statement showing us some results. Is this test live, demo ? You CANNOT know, simply because the account has NO investor access. Remember that commercial EA sellers CANNOT be trusted, if there is NO third party confirmation (like through myfxbook) or an investor access password with account number provided then the results are as good as useless. Anyone can open up notepad and write a statement like the one shown in html without any problems. Why does this guy think that we will just belive that it is real when in reality EA sellers have shown time and time again that they are willing to manipulate and lie about their trading statements and their live/demo character ?
Moreover, we find that this account statement is strangely limited to the first days of February. If this account statement is indeed real, then why isn't it updated LIVE ? Why isn't this done ? It is actually extremely supicious that you would limit the results of a profitable trading system this way. The most probable explanation, if the statement is real, is that the forex black panther did not perform quite well during February which had quite complicated market conditions. So this guy has a lot to explain. Why is the test limited ? Why isn't it live updated and why isn't investor access or third party verification provided ?
Then things actually get a lot more convoluted. The creator of this EA shows backtesting results, which are limited to the past 2 years of testing. Why would the black panther have to limit its testing if it is so profitable ? It is obvious that 10 year backtests can be shown. Why don't we see them on the website ? Then we have something VERY interesting. The author of the EA provides us with backtesting statements of 2010, so we can actually perform a back/"live" testing consistency analysis of a few months of trading. What we get is that the system shows VERY important differences between back and live testing. For example, on January 2010, the "live test" shows just 5 trades, when the backtest shows more than 15. However there are several additional discrepancies between both results. Therefore, profitability is bound to be MUCH LOWER in live testing when compared with backtesting, something which may inevitably increase the draw downs.
Then this guy hangs himself with his own story. He talks about managing thousands, even millions of dollars for a hedge fund using his system. He shows some "evidence" which is actually NOT reliable since it is merely a screenshot of a made html or the screenshot at the end of a demo test. In fact, you could simply open up 10 demo accounts, make opposite trades with very large lot sizes on them and get a demo account which goes from 10K to 100K in a few hours, that is no problem. I believe that this guy should show some respect for his website visitors, if he traded with hedge funds with his system then SHOW US THE STATEMENTS. Why would a person not show statements with third-party confirmation if they indeed traded with a hedge fund ? Why not reveal the name of the hedge fund ? This story is just pure BS. The reality shown by the evidence is much simpler. A guy runs several demo tests or codes some html to show those screenshots, then runs a very limited demo/live test to get some profitability to show.
Can the EA prove that it can triple an account in three months ? If the author provided investor access to the live account then the answer could be yes, for those three months (which is NOT every three months). However, the fact that there is NO back/live testing consistency points to the fact that the profitability of the EA is greatly overestimated and that possibly future results with that risk level will lead to account wipeouts (maybe that happened in February ?). The author should also provide a LIVE UPDATED, live account test to show us the EA is trading in real time something which will prevent fraud to a big extent, of course, providing a myfxbook widget with confirmation would be ideal.
However, in the light of the lack of live/back testing consistency, I am inclined to consider this trading system useless since there is no way in which we can reliably evaluate the system's performance in the past and very extensive live testing would be required to test the system under variable market conditions (to confirm its adaptability). In my mind, the creator of this EA should provide a live updated live test, 10 year backtesting statements and at least a 6 month period of live testing to do a fuller live/back testing consistency analysis. Meanwhile, in the light that the evidence shown cannot be trusted (because of the obvious limitation and lack of verification of the live test and the obvious and intentional limitation of the backtests) and because -even if trusted- the evidence points out to a lack of back/live testing consistency and long term profitability I consider this trading system NOT worth buying and testing.
If you would like to learn more about the systems I have coded or how you can learn how to design and code your OWN systems based on sound trading tactics to achieve long term profitability in forex trading please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !
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