Yesterday while searching for automated trading systems which I have not reviewed I came across the Venus Forex Robot. This expert advisor has a very interesting website which appears to contain evidence of profitability. Today's post will focus on the evaluation of this evidence against the claims made by the author and the detailed evaluation of the trading statements to determine the like hood of this system to be long term profitable. After doing all the analysis and using all my experience with automated trading systems I will tell you if I consider this expert advisor worth buying and testing or if it just another over hyped expert advisor with unproved claims and a very rhetorical web page.
The Venus Forex Robot website is not unlike most forex expert advisor sales pages, the creators of the EA start with the usual attempt to empathize with the trader's present situation and then they start to show some evidence of profitability which will be the center of the discussion for the remainder of this post.
The evidence shown for the profitability of the Venus Forex Robot is nothing but lacking. The backtests shown for the EA cover a very small period of one single year when it is clearly possible and easy to do a backtest for at least a 10 year period. Certainly doing a backtest of only 2009 data is a deliberate attempt to hide more evidence about the expert's past performance results. There are many systems which will give you profitable results for a year and then fail the next and come break even in 10 years or lose ten times more than what they won on the next year of testing. Having reliable simulations for the period of 2000-2010 is vital to know that an automated trading system is able to handle varied market conditions. The fact that the simulations of the Venus forex robot are deliberately limited to a single year of testing certainly tell us that the creator of the EA is trying to hide something. Most of the time the problem is that the EA fails to perform on past years, there would be no other obvious reason to hide those testing results.
Another very interesting fact comes when we look at the demo test shown by the authors of the EA. If you carefully analyze the statement you will notice that almost ALL the profit gained by the EA comes from 5 profitable trades taken at the beginning with more than 30 times the lot size traded in the end. The initial trade was taken with a 1.00 lot size while the last trades are taken with a 0.03 lot size. You could think that this is due to a "dynamic" adaptability to market conditions but this is definitely not the case since the backtests show that all trades in 2009 where done with the same lot size, a fact that also points out that the EA fails to adapt its trading size to changing market conditions. What this tells us is that the authors of the EA deliberately used a very high risk in the beginning of the test later reducing that risk, probably to make loses much smaller and stay with the profit they had gained in the beginning.
This is terribly dishonest but its exactly what the evidence shown on the statements tell us. I will be glad to remove this analysis if the people at Venus Forex Robot leave comment telling us why the dramatic change in lot sizes when backtesting results show that a constant lot size is used.
There is definitely not enough evidence to consider this expert advisor long term profitable in the light of the evidently limited backtests and very limited and possibly manipulated demo testing information provided. The author of the Venus Forex Robot definitely seems to have something to hide about his/her EA ? Why is it so ? In the light of the very limited evidence and the lack of enough testing to even determine that there is a possibility for long term profitability I consider this expert advisor NOT worth buying or testing.
If you would like to learn more about automated trading systems and how the key to automated trading system profitability is within sound trading system design please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !
The Venus Forex Robot website is not unlike most forex expert advisor sales pages, the creators of the EA start with the usual attempt to empathize with the trader's present situation and then they start to show some evidence of profitability which will be the center of the discussion for the remainder of this post.
The evidence shown for the profitability of the Venus Forex Robot is nothing but lacking. The backtests shown for the EA cover a very small period of one single year when it is clearly possible and easy to do a backtest for at least a 10 year period. Certainly doing a backtest of only 2009 data is a deliberate attempt to hide more evidence about the expert's past performance results. There are many systems which will give you profitable results for a year and then fail the next and come break even in 10 years or lose ten times more than what they won on the next year of testing. Having reliable simulations for the period of 2000-2010 is vital to know that an automated trading system is able to handle varied market conditions. The fact that the simulations of the Venus forex robot are deliberately limited to a single year of testing certainly tell us that the creator of the EA is trying to hide something. Most of the time the problem is that the EA fails to perform on past years, there would be no other obvious reason to hide those testing results.
Another very interesting fact comes when we look at the demo test shown by the authors of the EA. If you carefully analyze the statement you will notice that almost ALL the profit gained by the EA comes from 5 profitable trades taken at the beginning with more than 30 times the lot size traded in the end. The initial trade was taken with a 1.00 lot size while the last trades are taken with a 0.03 lot size. You could think that this is due to a "dynamic" adaptability to market conditions but this is definitely not the case since the backtests show that all trades in 2009 where done with the same lot size, a fact that also points out that the EA fails to adapt its trading size to changing market conditions. What this tells us is that the authors of the EA deliberately used a very high risk in the beginning of the test later reducing that risk, probably to make loses much smaller and stay with the profit they had gained in the beginning.
This is terribly dishonest but its exactly what the evidence shown on the statements tell us. I will be glad to remove this analysis if the people at Venus Forex Robot leave comment telling us why the dramatic change in lot sizes when backtesting results show that a constant lot size is used.
There is definitely not enough evidence to consider this expert advisor long term profitable in the light of the evidently limited backtests and very limited and possibly manipulated demo testing information provided. The author of the Venus Forex Robot definitely seems to have something to hide about his/her EA ? Why is it so ? In the light of the very limited evidence and the lack of enough testing to even determine that there is a possibility for long term profitability I consider this expert advisor NOT worth buying or testing.
If you would like to learn more about automated trading systems and how the key to automated trading system profitability is within sound trading system design please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !
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