Thursday, February 25, 2010

Forex Expert Advisors : Forex UltraBot, an Unbiased Review

During my yesterday's search for new trading systems I found the Forex Ultrabot expert advisor. Today's post will focus on the review of this trading system. As always I will focus on the evidence provided by the authors as well as the claims made on the website. This analysis will let us know if the expert advisor is able to live up to its claims or if it is simply another over-hyped worthless trading system like most of the expert advisors sold on the internet. In the end I will also give you my analysis about the possible long term profitability of this system and whether or not I consider it worth buying and testing.

From a first look, the UltraBot Forex expert advisor seems to give a good impression. You have 10 years of backtesting data with an almost 1:1 risk to reward ratio and an SL and TP in the 50-200 pip range. The UltraBot system also uses volatility adjusted exit mechanisms which should provide it with an edge against changes in market conditions (if it is implemented as the authors say). From an analysis of the backtesting statements we can see that the SL and TP definitely change as the market changes which speaks about and adaptive implementation. However the fact that lot sizes are not adapted against volatility could make the system's adaptability worthless since it is very important to adjust both position sizing and the exit mechanisms against volatility since both must work in unison. Failing to adapt one while adapting the other does not generally have a positive outcome as I demonstrated on my November 2009 article in Currency Trader Magazine.

However is this evidence enough to backup the website's claims about profitability and high trading accuracy ? Sadly, no. The problem is that the ultrabot authors provide evidence only in the form of backtesting statements. In reality we cannot simply rule out the fact that profitability in backtesting can simply be "made up", meaning that the trading system could have simply been made with the benefit of hindsight to use certain curve-fitted results on certain dates or other similar tactics. The fact that the 15 minute time frame is used could also points out to large broker dependency and modeling quality problems because of the reduced number of reference points available per bar.

From what we are shown on the website, all the results of the ultrabot expert advisor could simply be the result of hindsight and the exploitation of backtesting faults. Why isn't a live test of the trading system done ? With only a few sales the authors could open a few micro live accounts to show us live-updated performance of their trading system. Why isn't this evidence provided ? Why isn't there a live tests ? What are the creators trying to hide ? It is undeniable that the lack of live testing clearly means "we are hiding something" since live tests of this system could be made from even 100 USD per live account. Why would you ever risk to use a trading system which the authors do NOT care to use ? Clearly you should not.

Due to the lack of live trading evidence and the fact that the trading system's backtests could simply be the product of hindsight and curve-fitting I consider this trading system NOT worth buying or testing. If live trading evidence with investor access is made available I will be glad to rewrite this review to consider the newly available evidence. Meanwhile, this is simply another over-hyped expert advisor with no proven live/back testing consistency and a big probability of just being a worthless trading system.

If you would like to learn more about trading system design and how you too can learn how a likely long term profitable system is made and traded please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

3 comments:

StressFreeLife said...

Hi Daniel, I paid for subscription on 2/23 and it's past 24 hours, I still have not received log in. I also sent you emails but no reply. Please advise. My email: ******247@yahoo.

Daniel said...

Hello,

Thank you for the comment :o) I sent you your subscription information on the date of your purchase plus several emails after that repeating the information after I received your emails telling me you hadn't received anything. Please add my email to your safe list since your email provider is blocking every email I send you. I have just emailed you the information for the third time from another email. Please send me a message with another email address to send you the information if you still don't get it. Thanks again for the comment and for subscribing to asirikuy :o)

Best Regards,

Daniel Fernandez

Kim D. said...

Hi Daniel,

I received your email. Yay! :-)
Thank you so much for your outstanding support.

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