Through the past few days I have been receiving several spam emails as well as requests from Asirikuy members to review the Robot WorldCup set of expert advisors. These expert advisors were run on a 2 month competition on live accounts through the past few months proving to give profitable results on this period of time. Now the people who run the competition are trying to sell these experts for 999 USD with the claims that this set of trading systems is able to produce very high profits in a proved, reliable fashion. On today's post I will review these claims against the evidence provided. I will also tell you my opinion about the likehood of long term profitability of these trading systems.
First of all, it is clear to me and it should be clear to anyone who has been trading with automated trading systems for a while that a system developed for a competition and a system developed for reliable long term trading are too completely different things. The aim on a competition is simply to win the competition while the aim on long term investment is to increase one's capital with the least possible risk on equity in a long time frame. On a competition the participants are not risking their money and they are trading on a very limited amount of time under very limited market conditions. This of course encourages the use of curve-fitting and very high risk levels which would undoublty not be used in live trading.
Is there any value to a 2 month live test ? The truth is that trading a system on a live account for 2 months does not give any significant information about a trading system's performance in the long term. Why do this people think that a 2 month test can guarantee the continuity of those same results indefinitely ? It definitely CANNOT. A 2 month live test only shows that the system was profitable under a given set of market conditions under a given amount of risk. For example, if Watukushay No.2 had been run with a Risk of 20% per trade (as some of these experts were) for the past two months it would have made more than a 140% profit in live trading. However this does NOT mean that the system can get a very high profit every month, it merely means that the system was very profitable within that period but a 10 year backtest reveals that this is not the average case and that running the expert with such high risk settings eventually brings the system to a deep draw down and wipeout owing to the appearence of unfavorable market conditions and the EXCESS risk used by the system.
This sales pitch the forex robot worldcup experts are based on is nothing but a misleading half-truth. Yes, the experts were profitable for 2 months but no 10 year backtest is given to compare results and check for live/back testing consistency or even to have an idea of the performance of the experts under different market conditions (if live/back testing consistency is indeed existant). In fact, the backtests are limited to one or two years, something VERY suspicious given the fact that 10 year backtests are clearly available and easy to perform on the systems. Do they have something to hide over long term results ?
To me it seems evident that the whole point behind the competition was to get some very high profitable results for a short period of time on some systems only to have them sold after to make a MUCH higher profit that what they made on live accounts (and what the other systems lost). Why aren't the experts still being traded ? Why was the live testing stopped ? Chances are that if you run any given set of trading systems curve fitted to the last year of trading for 2 months with high risk settings, some of them are bound to give you very high returns. Will they give you the same returns in 10 years ? It is highly unlikely and the people who are selling the forex robot worldcup expert advisors have NO evidence of long term profitability. The danger in trading this systems is extreme as no idea of the performance under unfavorable market conditions is known and therefore people have no idea of the amount of draw down (or wipeout) they will go into.
For all the reasons mentioned above, the misleading profit targets, the lack of 10 year backtests with live/back testing consistency tests and the fact that the tests were overly limited and have been stopped I consider these expert advisors NOT worth buying or testing. If they add 10 year backtests, back/live testing consistency analysis and continue the live tests of this experts I will be more than glad to redo this review. Meanwhile this forex robot worldcup are nothing to me but a bunch of yet more short term profitable systems with no evidence or support for long term profitability.
If you would like to learn more about the systems I have developed with long term profitability and controlled risk in mind please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !
First of all, it is clear to me and it should be clear to anyone who has been trading with automated trading systems for a while that a system developed for a competition and a system developed for reliable long term trading are too completely different things. The aim on a competition is simply to win the competition while the aim on long term investment is to increase one's capital with the least possible risk on equity in a long time frame. On a competition the participants are not risking their money and they are trading on a very limited amount of time under very limited market conditions. This of course encourages the use of curve-fitting and very high risk levels which would undoublty not be used in live trading.
Is there any value to a 2 month live test ? The truth is that trading a system on a live account for 2 months does not give any significant information about a trading system's performance in the long term. Why do this people think that a 2 month test can guarantee the continuity of those same results indefinitely ? It definitely CANNOT. A 2 month live test only shows that the system was profitable under a given set of market conditions under a given amount of risk. For example, if Watukushay No.2 had been run with a Risk of 20% per trade (as some of these experts were) for the past two months it would have made more than a 140% profit in live trading. However this does NOT mean that the system can get a very high profit every month, it merely means that the system was very profitable within that period but a 10 year backtest reveals that this is not the average case and that running the expert with such high risk settings eventually brings the system to a deep draw down and wipeout owing to the appearence of unfavorable market conditions and the EXCESS risk used by the system.
This sales pitch the forex robot worldcup experts are based on is nothing but a misleading half-truth. Yes, the experts were profitable for 2 months but no 10 year backtest is given to compare results and check for live/back testing consistency or even to have an idea of the performance of the experts under different market conditions (if live/back testing consistency is indeed existant). In fact, the backtests are limited to one or two years, something VERY suspicious given the fact that 10 year backtests are clearly available and easy to perform on the systems. Do they have something to hide over long term results ?
To me it seems evident that the whole point behind the competition was to get some very high profitable results for a short period of time on some systems only to have them sold after to make a MUCH higher profit that what they made on live accounts (and what the other systems lost). Why aren't the experts still being traded ? Why was the live testing stopped ? Chances are that if you run any given set of trading systems curve fitted to the last year of trading for 2 months with high risk settings, some of them are bound to give you very high returns. Will they give you the same returns in 10 years ? It is highly unlikely and the people who are selling the forex robot worldcup expert advisors have NO evidence of long term profitability. The danger in trading this systems is extreme as no idea of the performance under unfavorable market conditions is known and therefore people have no idea of the amount of draw down (or wipeout) they will go into.
For all the reasons mentioned above, the misleading profit targets, the lack of 10 year backtests with live/back testing consistency tests and the fact that the tests were overly limited and have been stopped I consider these expert advisors NOT worth buying or testing. If they add 10 year backtests, back/live testing consistency analysis and continue the live tests of this experts I will be more than glad to redo this review. Meanwhile this forex robot worldcup are nothing to me but a bunch of yet more short term profitable systems with no evidence or support for long term profitability.
If you would like to learn more about the systems I have developed with long term profitability and controlled risk in mind please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !
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