Sunday, January 3, 2010

Forex Trading Systems : Steinitz Fractal Breakout Indicator, an Unbiased Review

Today and tomorrow I will be fulfilling two review requests from a newsletter subscriber who wanted me to comment on two products sold by Don Steinitz. Today's post will be focused on the review of the Steinitz Fractal indicator which is a trading tool supposed to be able to allow traders to double their account every month. Within this post I will analyze the indicator and see if the author has enough evidence to backup his claims. After that I will also give my opinion of whether or not I think this indicator is worth buying and testing.

It is really something to talk about this guy, Don Steinitz. People either love him or hate him out there. There are claims of him being the best with reliable trading systems and tools and many people out there claiming he is a con artist and a scammer. I will certainly not go into that play field. Whether or not Don Steinitz did program this indicator or took some free software and stole is not the objective of this review. I am also not going to take into account any of the opinions I have seen online as I the objective of this review is, as always, an unbiased perspective on the forex product offered by the seller.

Getting straight to the point, the Fractal indicator offered by Don Steinitz is your regular "arrow and alert" type of indicator which is used as a tool for a manual trader to obtain better entries. My problem with this approach, and with the fractal indicator, is that the indicator consitutes only a source of entries and does not make up the entire trading system. The "live" results offered on the website are NOT verified by a third party and therefore they CANNOT be trusted. What tells us that the statements are not made up ? Nothing. When it comes to forex sellers, being Don Steinitz or not, we always need to ask for live trading statements checked by a third party. These statements cannot be trusted.

Another problem is that there is absolutely no proof that the trading was actually done with the system. In order to proof that a manual trading system can be profitable one needs to create and account and a detailed log which shows how every trade took place and was a consequence of the use of the system. The person looking at the log is able to see the reasons why every trade was taken and is able to truly evaluate if the system works or not. With the absence of an adequate journal to backup all the live trading statements it becomes impossible for us to say if they are a consequence of the indicator used and if those results could be reproduced by any third party using the indicator.

Profitability in forex trading, in my experience, comes from the use of adequate money management strategies and the control of the trader's emotions, entries, are actually not as important as people believe them to be. People using the indicator will most likely find it, as all other indicators, to give many more losing than profitable signals. Probably the source of profitability for those who are able to use it successfully is good money management (lot size traded plus exit criteria).

Does the strategies provided by Don Steinitz on his videos achieve these results ? We have absolutely no idea. The seller has absolutely no proof that the statements provided are real and more over he has no proof that the people trading the system actually used it according to the recommended trading strategy. On top of that, the live statements provided are too short, we would need a track record of at least two years in order to verify that the manual trading system does have the potential to be profitable in the long term. The results, if at all real and consistent with the system, could have just been the result of an "above average" month with losing months giving more loses.

Long story short, Don Steinitz fails to provide enough information as to believe that the claims made about his Steinitz Fractal Breakout are real, there is no evidence that proof the statements are real, no evidence that if they are real they indeed traded the system and even if these two were true, the testing period is still too short to say anything about the systems profitability. In conclusion, since there is not enough evidence to say anything about the system I will say that this indicator is not worth buying or testing. Buying this would simply be gambling your money.

If you would like to learn about long term profitable automated trading systems with sound trading tactics and money managements please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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