Thursday, January 14, 2010

Forex Expert Advisors : Forex Juggernaut an Unbiased Review

A few days ago, a newsletter subscriber asked me if I could review a new automated trading system out there known as forex juggernaut. Today's post will be focues on the review of this expert advisor. As always, my review will evaluate the evidence provided on the website against the author's claims. Then, by analyzing the statements provided I will be able to use my criteria and experience to evaluate whether or not is likely to be long term profitable. After all this analysis I'll be able to say if the expert is or is definitely NOT wroth buying and testing.

The forex juggernaut website starts with a really bold claim which states that the expert is able to "CRUSH The Greedy Forex GURU HEAVYWEIGHTS & Swipe $42,533.96 Using 100% 'Smash & Grab' Automated 'DAILY' Expert Advisor!". The way in which they then backup this claim is absolutely and totally meaningless. First of all, as I have said many times before. Results in real life and results in simulation are TOTALLY different things which CANNOT simply be replaced without distinction. It is very different to say "the system made X in simulation" than to say that the expert made X in real trading. These people are simply doing something unethical by portraying simulations as if they were live results on their claims. It is simply not the same and even suggesting that the expert is able to do something in simulation in real life without specifying clearly that the claims are based on simulations is dishonest.

It also irritates me that they call their expert advisor "risk free", it is absolutely illegal to call any forex trading system risk free since there is of course an inherent risk in any trading, specially in the forex market which is one of the riskiest markets in the world to trade. Why in the world do they call it risk free when there is CLEARLY and UNDENIABLY a LARGE risk involved escapes my reasoning.

The evidence that follows and the rest of the forex juggernaut website is nothing short of an attempt to lure inocent new traders into buying something for which there is no support. The only evidence available is a 2 year backtest. Why not run a ten year backtest ? Why isn't there live trading so that we can tell if the backtests are accurate ? The forex juggernaut's backtest could simply be a consequence of the exploitation of backtesting faults, the use of hindsight or a combination of this. The fact that it has an unfavorable, almost 10:1 risk to reward ratio further supports this hypothesis with systems with a much larger SL than TP favoring the TP due to backtesting faults. Remember that we ALWAYS need live testing results in order to validate results obtained through backtesting. It is absolutely NOT enough to have a backtesting because there are just too many ways in which backtesting can be manipulated. Backtesting is only an indicative of what would have been true past performance if live testing shows to be consistent with the live tests.

Why didn't the people at forex juggernaut put 100 USD from their "massive profits" to test the EA on a micro account ? Why would you put your money where they failed to put THEIRS ? Why would you ever trust to trade a product the creator him/herself does not actually trust enough to commit his/her money to ? Of course, the fact that there is absolutely no evidence when the evidence that needs to be provided can be so obviously obtained hints to the fact that this product was simply designed to produce profitable results in backtesting and fails to profit in real live trading conditions. As always, the burden of proof is on THEIR accounts, NOT on yours. I would also like to know where the "proven track record" they talk about on the web page is. Clearly until they show us, it seems to be within their imaginations.

Because of the overwhelming lack of evidence and obvious limitation of backtesting periods and lack of live testing this expert is absolutely NOT worth buying or testing. If you would like to know more about experts that can offer you realistic profitable results in automated trading with realistic risk targets and sound trading techniques please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !

1 comment:

quickcon said...

I agree. I bought 2 EA's from the same company; Forex Juggernaught and Forex Transporter. None of them are making money. Infact there is no support on them either. Does anyone know how I can get my money back.

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