As you know, most of my time is dedicated to the review of automated trading systems, however today I am going to take a little bit of time away from that in order to review a manual trading system called forex rebellion. I think it is also important to review manual trading systems because often it is easy for people to fall into all the marketing and hype presented by these sellers. In particular I wanted to review the forex rebellion trading strategy since it is a perfect example of the way in which these forex strategy sellers lure people into buying their trading systems that have a complete lack of evidence and support.
First of all, what would you ask a trader who wanted to manage your trading account ? What track record would someone have to have in order to convince you that they can produce profits with your money ? A year ? Two ? Most serious investment firms won't even bother if your track record is below 10 years. So why is it that people have such a soft criteria when they go out to look for and buy a manual trading strategy ?
Of course, the dream my friends, the dream. Forex Rebellion is a perfect example that shows you how this marketing technique works. The whole website is based on the concept of positive reinforcement. It tells you what you want to hear and then reinforces it with some insufficient evidence of profitability that you will believe because well, you want to believe it. Of course, in the whole process some very important information is not given. Such things as the maximum expected draw down of the strategy, the expected average annual profitability, the number of trades, the expected loses because of swap, spreads, etc.
More over, the website never shows us an actual track record of trades that has any "decent" length. That is, we don't have a track record of at least a few years to actually believe the things this guy is saying. I have known people who, out of luck, have been able to pull 100 and 200% profits during one or two months, that is no problem. The actual problem in forex trading is to do this in the long term and this is what sets a successful trader apart from a "lucky" one. So who in their right mind would buy a system that has tests of 2 or 3 months ? Absolutely no one ! A fund manager would laugh if you told him to hire you out of your three months of experience in trading.
I am sure you all can see that when this is put in perspective it becomes obvious. A trading system with very scarce evidence with no actual evidence of long term profitability is just as good as going to Vegas and spinning the roulette. All the talk and the videos and everything on the web page is simply no substitute for evidence, the evidence is a must and no system without it should be considered. Especially manual trading systems.
Of course, in my opinion, in the light of the complete lack of any reliable information that can backup any of the claims made by the author in the long term I am going to say that this trading system is absolutely NOT worth buying or testing, although, the website is in fact a perfect example of many of the strategies used by people in the "forex product business" to take money away from the people in the market. However, if you came to my website because you are interested in automated trading systems and how they can be traded profitably please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !
First of all, what would you ask a trader who wanted to manage your trading account ? What track record would someone have to have in order to convince you that they can produce profits with your money ? A year ? Two ? Most serious investment firms won't even bother if your track record is below 10 years. So why is it that people have such a soft criteria when they go out to look for and buy a manual trading strategy ?
Of course, the dream my friends, the dream. Forex Rebellion is a perfect example that shows you how this marketing technique works. The whole website is based on the concept of positive reinforcement. It tells you what you want to hear and then reinforces it with some insufficient evidence of profitability that you will believe because well, you want to believe it. Of course, in the whole process some very important information is not given. Such things as the maximum expected draw down of the strategy, the expected average annual profitability, the number of trades, the expected loses because of swap, spreads, etc.
More over, the website never shows us an actual track record of trades that has any "decent" length. That is, we don't have a track record of at least a few years to actually believe the things this guy is saying. I have known people who, out of luck, have been able to pull 100 and 200% profits during one or two months, that is no problem. The actual problem in forex trading is to do this in the long term and this is what sets a successful trader apart from a "lucky" one. So who in their right mind would buy a system that has tests of 2 or 3 months ? Absolutely no one ! A fund manager would laugh if you told him to hire you out of your three months of experience in trading.
I am sure you all can see that when this is put in perspective it becomes obvious. A trading system with very scarce evidence with no actual evidence of long term profitability is just as good as going to Vegas and spinning the roulette. All the talk and the videos and everything on the web page is simply no substitute for evidence, the evidence is a must and no system without it should be considered. Especially manual trading systems.
Of course, in my opinion, in the light of the complete lack of any reliable information that can backup any of the claims made by the author in the long term I am going to say that this trading system is absolutely NOT worth buying or testing, although, the website is in fact a perfect example of many of the strategies used by people in the "forex product business" to take money away from the people in the market. However, if you came to my website because you are interested in automated trading systems and how they can be traded profitably please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !
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3 comments:
I've tried Forex Rebellion, and it really is a useful tool for finding trade set-ups. One needs to be patient, of course, and one must also want to trade manually because there is no automation at all. My success rate on trades ran around 70-80% on a 15 minute timeframe. I found, however, that simple Hull moving average crossovers provided almost identical trade triggers, and this indicator is widely available at no cost on the net.
Daniel, I'd like your opinion on this website and its offerings
http://iticsoftware.com/
which is up here in Canada. They offer a broad range of EA's for hundreds of dollars, most of which are back-tested for several years. I was interested in one, and asked Boris, the owner, to back test up to the current period, since the tests stop midway through 2009. Sure enough, the EA showed continued strength until December. From what I know, the backtesting was done in an apparent rigourous fashion, but I would like your opinion of that process. It's all well documented on the website.
Thanks.
I forgot to mention that iticsoftware does not have any money back guarantee on their EA's, so the rigour of the backtesting is critical in making a judgement to buy.
Hello Redford,
I am glad you bought forex rebellion and found it useful. However you have to understand that the track record on the website is pretty precarious and there is no way to know if the results can be achieved in the long term due to the very scarse and short term information. I hope you can keep us up to date on your performance if you do experience success during the next few years.
Regardin iticsfotware, I already wrote a review about their experts. The review is available here : http://fxreviews.blogspot.com/2009/10/forex-expert-advisors-iticsoftwarecom.html . The exploitation of backtesting faults is obvious for some systems while others use very unsound trading strategies which are sure to wipe accounts such as incremental money management techniques (like Martingales). Thank you for your interest,
Best Regards,
Daniel
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