Friday, August 28, 2009

Forex Expert Advisors : Forex Lexus an unbiased review

Another system that was suggested for me to review a few days ago is the Forex Lexus expert advisor. Today's post will be dedicated to the review of this expert advisor based on the information given by the expert's creator. I have to say that this expert is totally strange as it deviates from what I am used to review.

When you arrive at the expert's website, the web page seems to be pretty badly rendered and structures. There is also absolutely no intent to hype the customer, to give him false claims or anything of this sort at all. I have to say that I appreciate the author's intent to make clean, clear cut website where you go straight to the evidence with no crap to read beforehand.

I have to say that despite the author's intent with the website and his seemingly good intentions, the expert advisor fails to deliver any significant evidence to prove it is profitable. First things first, the author provides live account statements which don't have any trades at all, so it is very hard to evaluate the expert in this way (well, I guess he just set it up so we should give the author some time to deliver the evidence). Now, the author shows some backtesting and then says that it is not suitable for year long backtests because it requires optimization every certain amount of days. Well, I have to say that in my experience I have never seen one single long term profitable trading system that requires optimization. The expert should be able to do this by himself so that the amount of lag due to the optimization to market conditions remains minimal. If the system cannot be backtested for the past ten years, analyzed and then confronted against live results, then there is not anything else to say about it's trading.

After looking at the website and going through the evidence provided by the author I would have to say that this system is NOT worth buying since there is no way in which we can confirm that the system can be long term profitable. The system also runs the risk of having periods of very high draw down if market conditions shift too quickly and repeatedly (while systems that have adjustable logic, by ATR values for example, will most likely endure the markets much better). Again, I have never ever seen a long term profitable system that ahs to be optimized every 30-45 days.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how there are actually free long term profitable systems you can profit from please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed this article !

4 comments:

lucas said...

Hi i bought this EA 10 days back , since then i have made 20 % of my capital . I wouldnt agree with you regarding drawdown. A couple of occaions it came out of a trade with only very few pips loss, nowhere new stop loss. and never stopped out so far , worth considering again .

Daniel said...

Hello Lucas,

As you may have read on many of my posts, commercial experts like this one are often geared towards the generation of short term profits such as the ones you have experienced. Long term profitability is an entirely different matter. A 20% profit in 10 days means an amazing market exposure, it will put your account at huge risk. Many of these systems can make profits as the ones you claim in short time spans but they WILL wipe your account if you trade them for the long term. This has been proven time and time again. I am not willing to bet my money to prove a system is profitable as the burden of proof is with the author, not with my live account and the author of this EA does NOT provide evidence of his claims beyond reasonable doubt. So investing on this is as good as gambling until he proves his claims.

Best Regards,

Daniel

Daniel said...

Also, as a side note, please do not post comments about small testing periods as this are irrelevant. I would only consider periods above 4 months of any meaning as smaller periods are just too small to prove anything. I specified this may experience heavy draw down on market condition shifts which may happen only once or twice a year, so beware. LONG TERM is what we want, so bear this in mind when leaving comments regarding profitability.

lucas said...

Thanks for your opinion, I will be more cautious from now.

Daniel Fernandez's Expert Author Email Alerts
Sign up to receive email alerts of Daniel Fernandez’s latest articles from EzineArticles.com!

Email Address: