As for the past two weeks, today I'll continue to focus on the review of another automated trading system. Today's post will be dedicated to the review of the forex cyclone expert advisor which was suggested to me by a customer who had previously purchased my automated trading ebook. As always, this review is written based on the evidence provided by the expert advisor creator and is no way biased as I get no reward of any kind for giving the EA either positive or negative feedback.
The website starts with a very bold claim from the authors saying he has "reeled in 986,928.17" USD from the forex market. Now, this guy seriously has to be jocking. I am pretty impressed as how naive and ignorant this expert advisor sellers think their customers really are to put such bold claims first thing in a webpage and thinking they'll just swallow the whole thing. The sellers makes this claims based in the fact that he has a year long backtesting results that shows these results. This is definitely not a valid proof on income ! This guy is actually lying to everybody's face as he did not "reel in" all those profits, he just happened to have a backtest with those numbers which is VERY DIFFERENT than an account with that money inside. These claims are just unproven and are in fact a very good example of how unethical expert advisor sellers can be in the forex automated trading market.
Now, as far as the backtesting statements go and their reliability I would have to say that from the TP and SL values I could say that the one minute interpolation errors should be small, however, the EA could still be trading with inside bar data which could make real live results differ from backtesting results considerably. But ok, the system seems to perform alright from 2007 to 2009 and I believe that backtesting could overestimate profits (a lot) and underestimate loses (a lot too) but the overall picture seems credible.
The real problem comes in when we consider the length of the backtest and the lack of live testing. First, we don't have any idea of why the creator did not backtest his system from 1999 if the system is so profitable and we also don't know why he does not have any live or forward testing statements if he really believes his or her system to be as profitable. I would have to say that these things are always what makes me extremely suspecious about a trading system. If the author fails to provide testing information which would be obviously provided for a profitable trading system, then it is obviously because said information does not help his outrageous claims.
This expert is considered of course, not worth buying and the author would have to provide us longer backtests and live testing information so that we can ensure that there is back live testing consistency and that the EA can actually be long term profitable. Also, a check of the word "proven" in the dictionary wouldn't hurt.
If you would like to learn more about my opinions about the reality of automated trading and how you can also me profitable with automated trading systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed this article !
The website starts with a very bold claim from the authors saying he has "reeled in 986,928.17" USD from the forex market. Now, this guy seriously has to be jocking. I am pretty impressed as how naive and ignorant this expert advisor sellers think their customers really are to put such bold claims first thing in a webpage and thinking they'll just swallow the whole thing. The sellers makes this claims based in the fact that he has a year long backtesting results that shows these results. This is definitely not a valid proof on income ! This guy is actually lying to everybody's face as he did not "reel in" all those profits, he just happened to have a backtest with those numbers which is VERY DIFFERENT than an account with that money inside. These claims are just unproven and are in fact a very good example of how unethical expert advisor sellers can be in the forex automated trading market.
Now, as far as the backtesting statements go and their reliability I would have to say that from the TP and SL values I could say that the one minute interpolation errors should be small, however, the EA could still be trading with inside bar data which could make real live results differ from backtesting results considerably. But ok, the system seems to perform alright from 2007 to 2009 and I believe that backtesting could overestimate profits (a lot) and underestimate loses (a lot too) but the overall picture seems credible.
The real problem comes in when we consider the length of the backtest and the lack of live testing. First, we don't have any idea of why the creator did not backtest his system from 1999 if the system is so profitable and we also don't know why he does not have any live or forward testing statements if he really believes his or her system to be as profitable. I would have to say that these things are always what makes me extremely suspecious about a trading system. If the author fails to provide testing information which would be obviously provided for a profitable trading system, then it is obviously because said information does not help his outrageous claims.
This expert is considered of course, not worth buying and the author would have to provide us longer backtests and live testing information so that we can ensure that there is back live testing consistency and that the EA can actually be long term profitable. Also, a check of the word "proven" in the dictionary wouldn't hurt.
If you would like to learn more about my opinions about the reality of automated trading and how you can also me profitable with automated trading systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed this article !
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2 comments:
4xproject has back and forward tests for Cyclone, and show it has promise.
http://www.4xproject.com/lang/en-us/robot-overview/robots/forex-cyclone/
Hello Glen,
Thank you for your comment. I am aware of the back and forward tests going on at 4xproject.com, however I am unable to take them into account for several reasons. The first one is that they don't provide investor access to their forward testing accounts or access to the actual statements of either the back or forward testing accounts. For this reason it is impossible for anyone to know the reliability of either their back or forward testing results. Second, they do get money from affiliate links, and although it is true that this by itself is no reason for the results being bad, a wise man did say once that it is very hard to know something when your paycheck depends on you not knowing it. Given the fact that I cannot confirm the accuracy or veracity of their statements I do not consider them for my reviews. Keep in mind that you always have to be extremely careful in the world of forex and trust cannot be granted, it must earned. The verification of testing is a must.
Best Regards,
Daniel
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