It is amazing how I just cannot end up reviewing commercial experts. Everytime I surf the web in search for new automated trading systems I find a couple or more new, sometimes even more expert advisors. I usually try to review all expert advisors I encounter each time I search for them as well as each time people ask me to review some system I have not come across. Today, it's the turn of the Adelpha trading system by FedoraFX. I have to say that the website, from my linux desktop, looks quiet unpolished and badly done. Of course, I recon this could be due to the nature of my operating system but an EA seller should have his website ready for any customer, regardless of what operating system they are using.
But well, let's go directly into what concerns us, the evaluation of the trading strategy and evidence provided by FedoraFX, the creators of the Adelpha expert advisor. I mean, when you first enter their website and start to see their backtesting graph the hair on the back of your neck must start to stand up. I mean, absolutely linear equity graph when backtesting for the past 10 years ? After looking a little bit more deeply at the trading system you find out that (not surprisingly) the system closes trades with very small profits. Now, this means that there is very significant backtesting interpolation error, so yes, backtesting of this EA is meaningless.
Besides that, the EA has no stoploss, and this is the reason why it doesn't have any loses for the past 10 years. It just does not close any trades with open draw down, that is, the stoploss is your account balance ! Couple that with the interpolation errors in backtesting and that means that on a live account you would have had a few wipeout during the past 10 years. In my opinion, this expert advisor is just completely worthless, not even the time it took me to enter the website, calculate the values and write all this on a review. Of course, I do this in order to prevent any of the inexperienced retail traders out there from gettings such a sure loss expert advisor.
Again, if you would like to learn more about long term stable profitable expert advisors you can trade for free and how you can also evaluate experts and stop this EA sellers from getting your money for systems that don't work please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed this article !
But well, let's go directly into what concerns us, the evaluation of the trading strategy and evidence provided by FedoraFX, the creators of the Adelpha expert advisor. I mean, when you first enter their website and start to see their backtesting graph the hair on the back of your neck must start to stand up. I mean, absolutely linear equity graph when backtesting for the past 10 years ? After looking a little bit more deeply at the trading system you find out that (not surprisingly) the system closes trades with very small profits. Now, this means that there is very significant backtesting interpolation error, so yes, backtesting of this EA is meaningless.
Besides that, the EA has no stoploss, and this is the reason why it doesn't have any loses for the past 10 years. It just does not close any trades with open draw down, that is, the stoploss is your account balance ! Couple that with the interpolation errors in backtesting and that means that on a live account you would have had a few wipeout during the past 10 years. In my opinion, this expert advisor is just completely worthless, not even the time it took me to enter the website, calculate the values and write all this on a review. Of course, I do this in order to prevent any of the inexperienced retail traders out there from gettings such a sure loss expert advisor.
Again, if you would like to learn more about long term stable profitable expert advisors you can trade for free and how you can also evaluate experts and stop this EA sellers from getting your money for systems that don't work please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed this article !
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6 comments:
Hi Daniel, first off thank you for taking the time to review our EA! I don't re-call you actually purchasing the EA so I'm not sure where you are coming up with your explanations?
I assure you Daniel, we have used this EA on our live account for a long time before even considering releasing it on the market, and we have not had any margin calls or big losses for that matter. In addition, users that currently own the EA can see that if they back test in relation to our LIVE MT4 Stats, you will see the backtest results correlate, so I would not go as far to say that back test are irrelevant, because they do match live forward testing...
We do have a stop loss. It is hidden, as we have worked with many brokers throughout the years, we find that in live forward testing this was much more profitable for us, as we avoid broker stop loss hunting.
Yes, we must apologize for the site, we were under pressure from many angles to launch our new adelpha system, so it needed to be done quickly. You shall be seeing an updated site in the future, that is cross-browser compatible.
We back out EA 100%, so please ask us questions regarding our EA before commenting on what you "think" our EA may be doing. We are more than happy to answer any questions.
Thanks Daniel.
FedoraFX
Hello FedoraFX,
My opinions of your system are based on my evaluation for trading systems for the past few years. I just call them like I see them and your system to me, is all the things I called it until you prove the contrary.
You have to bear in mind that I have seen systems like yours many times and what I wrote in my review is certainly what I have found every time.
The burden of proof is on you, if the things you are saying are actually true then you should provide at least some months of live testing against some backtest we can correlate it to. Also, the one minute interpolation error on take profits as low as yours is not something I made up, systems with low closes are very prone to this because of the way the mt4 platform is programmed.
Also, a completely linear equity curve ? that must mean either huge open draw downs, or huge interpolation errors on your backtest.
I am sorry but I cannot take your word for it. Show us your backtesting against the live testing statements on your accounts "for a long time" which you say you have.
Again, show us all the evidence, your "long time tests" a backtest I can correlate to to validate and I'll be glad to rewrite this review. If you don't well, then until you prove it otherwise I will consider your system to be as I called it, which in my experience is the most probable thing.
Thanks for the response Daniel.
Do you have a contact number were we can call you next week?
We would like to do a team viewer to show you our live account with the months of data you are referring too. In addition show you what our backtest is doing. You can also see our third-party tracking at http://adelpha.mt4stats.com this is a live forward test.
We will also be willing to give you a demo of our new Adelpha system so you can see for yourself there is no large draw down or floating trade. I know what you mean in by this, too good to be true, but it's not. We've built a solid EA that was originally built for our personal use.
If you have the time next week, please let us knows what works. We would like the opportunity to prove ourselves.
Thank you, Daniel.
Fedora FX
Hello again Fedora,
As much as I appreciate the live testing you show us, it is way to little time to say anything about a system like yours. Given the fact that no stoploss is shown but it is "internal" it is extremely hard for me to gauge the market exposure of your system. Is it a 5:1 or a 1000:1 risk to reward ratio ?, it seems hard to know this until the system starts to take in some loses.
I would have to say that I also appreciate your effort to prove yourselves, almost no expert advisor selling company takes the time to actually debate their results.
If you would like to contact me I would prefer a skype call so just leave a message on the website's chat (lower left) with your skype name and I'll make sure I add you to my contact list so that we can arrange something. Nonetheless, I tell you in advance that I won't take any information you give me into account unless you disclose it to everyone who visits your website, it is very important for me that people can actually see for themselves the tests, live account statements, etc. Otherwise It could just look as if I was making the information up.
I also appreciate the demo EA offer, it would in fact give me a much better idea of how your EA trades so I may be able to make much better informed comments on it. However, the results of your EA are not just too good to be true, they scream the conclusions I gave in my review. Again, your system looks like a ton other systems I have seen, anyway, I would be glad if you were able to shift my opinions about this !
Talk to you later then,
Daniel
Hi Daniel, sorry for the delayed response.
The fact we have taken the initiative to speak with you and offer to show you how our EA works, should be good merit to say we are definitely not like other EA companies. This is one of the things we see as big benefit to customers.
I do not see the chat button on this comment page, What is your skype ID, I will send you a request.
Thank you Daniel, talk to you shortly.
Fedora FX.
Hello Fedora,
I would not like to post my skype name in a place like this. Please leave your skype name on the chat which is located on the left hand side of the page, below the menu there is a meebo chat box in which you can type you skype name and email information. Alternatively you can just leave your email here and I'll send you my contact info,
Daniel
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