During the past few months, the new commercial ea FAP Tubo has risen from the ashes of a former forex expert advisor. I have to say, I am amazed at how well these guys marketing tecniques work. I could not find a single unbiased review on the internet for this expert advisor. Every site I entered had the same "template" review with an affiliate link at the end. Come on ! I try to think that people that want to get into forex trading are not stupid at all.
Of course, their website is like every other super commercial forex product website. It is filled up with "evidence", testimonials, arrows, circles, etc. The things they show you actually seem believable and they have a great tongue for talking about "live testing" and "back testing" and how you should look for live testing and so on.
Well, reality check my friends. I will now try to tell you what the real deal with this expert advisor is and the things that should have made you ran away from their website in the first place. I will assume that everything they show is real evidence and I am going to ellaborate from there.
First things first, it is not difficult to make money in the forex market, even on a live account, in time periods as short as the ones shown by the fap turbo website. For the sake of clarity, any scalping expert advisor with a wide stop loss or a martingale system that trades frequently can and does show amazing profits in time periods as short as the ones shown in their live accounts. The catch ? Keeping those profits is an entirely different story, these type of systems are doomed to eventually wipe out there accounts. This is a statistical fact, not something I am making up right now.
Second thing, why would the fap turbo team not give investor access to their live and demo accounts ? My best guess is that they would not like you looking at the exact way in which this ea actually trades. How does it trade ? Well, it has two systems, a scalping system and a "long term" system for the EUR/USD.
Now it is time for a big laugh, the scalping system uses a 500 pip stop loss. This means that your win to lose ratio is awfuly bad. Losing a few trades is enough for wiping several dozens of winners. Of course, it could in fact win 95% of the time, which does not mean it is profitable at all if on the 5% of trades it loses, it wipes the account. This of course, cannot be seen in backtesting which often favors scalpers because of one minute interpolation errors. Their other system is quiet similar to the one I discussed when I revied forex autopilot, so feel free to look at that post.
Well, I cannot say that the fap turbo people are dishonest or that they are aware of their system's possible flaws. What I am saying is that I would never ever buy this piece of software as it is clear for me (in my humble opinion) from the beginning that it is doomed to lose because of it's trading methods. I think that their website shows a very clever selective display of information which clearly shows people what they want to see, how they want to see it. If they were ever serious about the profitability of their product, they would provide investor account information and not try to sell it before a year of live testing.
On another note, there are cases in a few forums were people are finding out the real way in which this ea trades and the truth about it's risk to reward ratios, please google this forums and look at other people's experiences before deciding to buy a product of a marketing website. Now, if you would like to learn about more free and commercial expert advisors I have tested and reviewed please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !
Of course, their website is like every other super commercial forex product website. It is filled up with "evidence", testimonials, arrows, circles, etc. The things they show you actually seem believable and they have a great tongue for talking about "live testing" and "back testing" and how you should look for live testing and so on.
Well, reality check my friends. I will now try to tell you what the real deal with this expert advisor is and the things that should have made you ran away from their website in the first place. I will assume that everything they show is real evidence and I am going to ellaborate from there.
First things first, it is not difficult to make money in the forex market, even on a live account, in time periods as short as the ones shown by the fap turbo website. For the sake of clarity, any scalping expert advisor with a wide stop loss or a martingale system that trades frequently can and does show amazing profits in time periods as short as the ones shown in their live accounts. The catch ? Keeping those profits is an entirely different story, these type of systems are doomed to eventually wipe out there accounts. This is a statistical fact, not something I am making up right now.
Second thing, why would the fap turbo team not give investor access to their live and demo accounts ? My best guess is that they would not like you looking at the exact way in which this ea actually trades. How does it trade ? Well, it has two systems, a scalping system and a "long term" system for the EUR/USD.
Now it is time for a big laugh, the scalping system uses a 500 pip stop loss. This means that your win to lose ratio is awfuly bad. Losing a few trades is enough for wiping several dozens of winners. Of course, it could in fact win 95% of the time, which does not mean it is profitable at all if on the 5% of trades it loses, it wipes the account. This of course, cannot be seen in backtesting which often favors scalpers because of one minute interpolation errors. Their other system is quiet similar to the one I discussed when I revied forex autopilot, so feel free to look at that post.
Well, I cannot say that the fap turbo people are dishonest or that they are aware of their system's possible flaws. What I am saying is that I would never ever buy this piece of software as it is clear for me (in my humble opinion) from the beginning that it is doomed to lose because of it's trading methods. I think that their website shows a very clever selective display of information which clearly shows people what they want to see, how they want to see it. If they were ever serious about the profitability of their product, they would provide investor account information and not try to sell it before a year of live testing.
On another note, there are cases in a few forums were people are finding out the real way in which this ea trades and the truth about it's risk to reward ratios, please google this forums and look at other people's experiences before deciding to buy a product of a marketing website. Now, if you would like to learn about more free and commercial expert advisors I have tested and reviewed please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or subscribing to my weekly newsletter to receive updates and check the live and demo accounts I am running with several expert advisors. I hope you enjoyed the article !
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7 comments:
I have this EA, and have been running it on demo since Nov 25th. I've considered opening a micro account to run it on several times, but have always backed off. Regardless, this EA continualy amazes me with its acuracy and profitability.
The scalper version, the longer term version is just FAPS with some long term filters added.
The scalper does not use a 500 pip stop, thats the long term EA. The scalper works on 4 different pairs and uses different stops and targets for each. Mostly in the 60 pip area, I've only seen losses greater than that a very few times and mostly when its been my own fault, trading through the xmas holidays, or during important news releases. But these are only relative settings, as it takes its profits and losses by an unknown internal algorithm, and they generaly fall between 0 and 10 pips. Ocasionaly it will get caught with a larger loss, but they have been mostly well contained, and very few.
This is a night scalper, and does very well at that. Rather remarkable for a $97 EA.
I would also add that the live accounts they show are still being traded, and continuously updated. Fluxuations in the accounts are mostly due to different versions of the program being developed and applied. This is still a new EA and there have been some problems, mostly due to the brokers widening the spreads on the specific pairs and times this EA trades. But overall I would have to say this seems to be a very good EA, unusually accurate, very few losses, and very few and limited drawdowns. Its internal algorithms work for both profit taking and loss taking, and overall its profitable. Not the incredible profits they show, those are totaly due to the large lot sizes and risk settings, but they are all real. Easily provable and duplicated on a demo account regardless of lot size.
Well, all the things I said about this ea are based on the statements shown by the website and my experience. I have to say, the burden of proof is on the expert's creator, not on me. If someone wants to show a profitable ea, believe me, I am the first one who wants to know !
Until then, I would encourage anyone who has traded this ea for a period above four months to please give an account number and investor password so that we can appreciate the profits or loses it makes. Why don't the people at the website offer investor access if their demos and live accounts are really run without modification ? I guess we will never know.
Anyway, I would love to be wrong about this ea, but there is not enough evidence of profitability for me to even consider buying it.
If I am wrong and all the people that have complained about my opinions are right, then I guess we will have 30,000 new billionaires by 2015 (according to fap turbo's number of sold copies). I guess that all those who know the principle of Ockhams Razor will agree with me :).
This pretty much sums it up , http://forums.babypips.com/free-forex-trading-systems/18365-pipzu-piptronic-7.html , people are experiencing things as I said in the post above.
You need to remember that these people who lost a lot during Dec and Jan where heavily overleveraged. Most were trying to duplicate the web sites claims of account doubling, or were following FAP Winner.
FAP Winner was recomending 20-30-even 40% position sizes across multiple pairs, depending on how aggressive you wantes to be. Also untill that time this EA had hardly shown a loss. Durring the entire first month it never lost more than 10 pips. Many people were overconfident, and paid the price.
And no this EA wont be making any more millionaires than it already has. Ockham's razor is right. This EA is oversold and its already showing in the brokers spreads.
However, this doesnt mean the EA is inacurate. If it was the brokers wouldnt need to widen their spreads just to compensate for the number of people trying to get rich quick from this EA.
This EA is extremely accurate, unusually so for a commercial EA. If it wasnt so oversold it would be a beautiful piece of equipment. As it is, its still a good EA. Its just got some serious competition from the brokers its being run on.
The stop loss and take profit levels it runs are as follows:
eurgbp, TP 6, SL 112
eurchf, TP 5, SL 53
gbpchf, TP 10, SL 75
usdcad, TP 10, SL 58
And it very rarely hits a stop loss. The internal algorithms generally take a calculated loss in the same range as the profits, only when the market swings against it too fast or strongly does it get stuck for the full stop loss amount.
I had given up on forex until I found this EA, it is the first EA I have found that is profitable up to the current time on backtests. (though I have since found another)
Yes it has a very large max stio on the EUR/GBP, in my tests over an almost 4 month period it is hit only once.
Even if this massive stop is shrunken and the profit limit taken out it still has a clear positive bias to winning and if the spread is low it will make good money with an 8 pip stop and a 6 pip profit limit!
So your analysis has IMO missed it on this EA.
If the respected Reviewer does not believe our real account trading results I would like to show you the 3rd party trading:
Donnaforex live account:
donnaforex.mt4stats.com
let the numbers speak for themselves.
I just had FapT close a trade on June 11, 2009 (stop loss) for a loss of -$142.00, thats more than 58 pips I think.
I believe that it is correct to say FapT will MT your account given enough time.
To get back the $142 at $10.00 profit per trade is 15 winners in a row. Fap has never done that for me, the most I see is around $4 or 5 and sometimes as little as $0.38. Figure out how many winners it would take at .038!!
I wish I knew how Donna fx does it.
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