Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Forex Killer, More Strategy

The past few days have been quiet moved for my Forex Killer strategy. I tested some hypothesis I had concerning the trading setup and so changed some parameters pertaining to it. I tried to test the reliability of forex killer's signals without looking at the daily trend. I have to say, quiet disastrous results. Three trades I placed on Monday with apparently high success probability (higher than 75%) failed. This, of course, is due to the fact that the signals were generated at the pinnacle of a retracement. Apparently forex killer mistakes retracements for trends when they extend for medium (4-6 hour) periods on the hourly charts. The result is a high probability signal followed by a sharp reversal which quickly triggers stop loss orders.

One of the trades, however, was in agreement with the daily trend. So what happened ? It seems that the stop loss given by forex killer is suitable for the hourly ranges of less volatile pairs. More volatile pairs, like jpy crosses, trigger either stop loss or take profit targets five times faster than USD pairs.

As a consequence of this trades, I decided to implement a modification to my trading strategy. I will not trade jpy crosses anymore as this would require an increase in the stop loss which I am not willing to take. This also diminishes the time it takes me to analyze pairs, to about 5 minutes.
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I also wanted to share with you a trade I spotted a few hours ago. This trade on the USD/JPY pair, showed high probability and coherence with the daily trend. I hope it illustrates my trading strategy better so that you can better benefit from what I have learned from forex killer.

11 comments:

Geremi said...

hi, im Geremi from Brunei Darussalam.

I nearly gave up on Forex Killer and already requeted a refund for it. I made straight losses with the system haha!

so what you are telling is that:

do not trade on jap pairs when using Forex Killer?

what are the other filters to use the FK? using the FK when there's retracement is not advisable?

Daniel said...

Hi Geremi,

Yes, you are right. I advise not to trade jpy crosses but I do trade the usd/jpy pair.

The other filters would be a higher than 70% probability, coherence between short and long term signals and coherence with the daily trend.

It is not advisable to trade retracements as forex killer gives unrealiable signals. Always trade in the direction of the daily trend.

tahoemnts said...

Do you have any further results with your FKiller system? Thanks.

Diego Fernando said...

Hello,
I used the refund policy, they gave me the money back. For me, the FK didn't work as stated in the forex killer web site. 15 trades. Only 3 positive, the rest SL.

Pips Rider & Naztreo said...

Sorry to hear that you lose in your trading using FK. We are the user of FK too, however we use our own strategy. Daniel is right...to make FK is working you need to use your own strategy. We rae not the affiliate of FK...you can check the result at http://fk-forextreme.blogspot.com.

dr31415 said...

I recently purchased Forex Killer and have seen nothing but losses. I read Daniel's strategy and several times today looked for a pair that matched the criteria. Three times I looked, three times I found no coherence. In other words, When the daily trend was up, FK was telling me to sell and when the daily was down, FK was telling me to buy. I will try for a couple more days. One win would make me feel better.

dr31415 said...

I recently purchased Forex Killer and have seen nothing but losses. I read Daniel's strategy and several times today looked for a pair that matched the criteria. Three times I looked, three times I found no coherence. In other words, When the daily trend was up, FK was telling me to sell and when the daily was down, FK was telling me to buy. I will try for a couple more days. One win would make me feel better.

Chameleon said...

FK is working great. they released version 3 few days ago with new tools and features. thanks daniel for great strategy.

Another great ForexKiller strategy i found here: http://autofx.blogspot.com/

Terry Wyld said...

Hi everyone.

I am starting to wonder if I should get e refund from forex-killer. How can you never get a sale percentage over 66%/ This seems to be a major foeble!

Are there any better systems to spend the money on?

Gordon Milton said...

Daniels advice hits the nail on the head, but I have noticed a lot of my trades not reaching the T/P before retracing and being stopped out by the Trailing stop-loss. This of course is not doing my bank balance much good.

So what I have done is cut the 70 pip profit target massively and now I am getting almost all trades hitting the T/P and I am making money.

However, I am monitoring the situation and will be increasing the T/P target again until I am achieving, hopefully, even higher profits. It seems to be a case of getting a good balance.

I hope this makes some sense.

fortaleza said...

Thanks Daniel for the helpful advice that you give on this blog. People like you are very rare to find. Daniel, I have been trading with FK for quite some time and noticed that what Gordon Milton said is right. It will be better to trade using your parameters with a 50pip TP and setting a 35pip Trailing Stop with it for the daily trending using the one hour chart. I also believe that one should be restricted to the four major pairs you mentioned in your last FK strategy post. I have seen various forex signal softwares and have concluded that one needs to combine cutting-edge strategies with them. There is this Winning Solutions System. You can check the site out at http://winning-solution.com and help in reviewing the system there. I believe in your judgement. I want to know if you trade fundamentally too. If yes, please review this EA from www.halcyonfx.com - SimpleNEWS v. 02. Please, help on these. Thanks.

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