Showing posts with label Reviews. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Reviews. Show all posts

Sunday, September 12, 2010

Revieweing Thrust VPS a New, Cheap and Reliable Option for EA Hosting

The subject of Virtual Private server hosting is a very sensitive one that affects all traders who want to use automated trading systems. Although it is possible to build a "home VPS" by setting up a raid backup server, a secondary internet connection and a large UPS this is not practical for most people and renting the service from a provider located within a data center seems like the best idea. Amongst the realms of shared VPS servers - where a single computer is shared as a host between different servers - Thrust VPS comes out as a new, fresh and reliable service that can be used by forex traders to host their metatrader 4 platforms.

There are several problems that usually happen with Virtual Private Servers that make people very reluctant to use one or another service provider. The most common complaint of traders about their VPS servers are unscheduled reboots (usually done for updates) problems accessing their platform through remote desktop and the lack of responsiveness of some support teams. I would have to say that many of these problems occur from time to time will all VPS providers and unless you are using a dedicated VPS (which is bound to be much more expensive) then you will have to deal with this if you want to have a VPS. (note however that using auto-login solutions and adequate security settings removes about 99% of these problems).

A few weeks ago I decided to try a new VPS solution in the market -called ThrustVPS - after hearing some good comments from fellow traders about their reliability, the speed of their servers and the great price. This company offers simple Windows 2008 VPS setups from 14.95 USD a month with 1GB of RAM, 30GB of disk space and 1TB of bandwidth each month. Compared to other VPS providers the amount of RAM is good but the amount of disk space and bandwidth seems rather limited, although much more than adequate for the needs of a regular metatrader 4 user.
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The payment process, setup and initial configuration of the server was quite easy and fast with everything ready within almost less than 1 business day. The server response is fast and the lag towards IBFX, FXDD and Alpari UK servers is low (5-10 ms) (of course, since the server is located in the US the lag towards Alpari UK is higher). The amount of RAM promised is available for use and the load on the VPS's processor seems to be very low at almost all times. Up until now I have not experienced any reboots or any other unusual behavior that may intervene with the Metatrader 4 platforms I have loaded within it.

However you should bear in mind that ThrustVPS is a young company and VPS providers are generally very good in the beginning before they start to get a lot of customers and start to behave in a greedy way. As a company grows and more clients appear they may resort to piling up more VPS on a single computer instead of buying more hardware something that reflects in an overall reduction in performance for some users. Definitely in the beginning almost all VPS providers are this good but time will tell if they are going to keep this level of performance or if they will just start to fill their current computers with more and more VPS servers without any hardware upgrades.

However right now ThrustVPS seems like a very reliable, cheap and fresh option for people looking for a new hosting provider for their Metatrader 4 platforms. This VPS company provides us with a cheap basic VPS plan with enough RAM and disk space to load several Metatrader 4 platforms with a very fast internet connection and a reduced lag to US forex brokers. As always I advice you setup adequate security measures and an auto-login solution which are absolutely necessary for reliable trading within a VPS. Hopefully ThrustVPS will remain this reliable for years but - as I said before - we won't know this for sure until the company starts receiving more customers.

If you would like to learn more about how you can build your own trading systems to run on a VPS based on sound trading tactics with realistic risk and profit targets please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach automated trading in general . I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

Friday, September 10, 2010

September Video Reviews : New Commercial Automated Trading Systems

Today I am releasing the 2nd video monthly reviews of automated trading systems. In August we saw the release of many different new trading systems, most of the expert advisors released have absolutely no proof of live trading and most of them do not even give the trader a decent glimpse at simulation results. As always there is an incredible desire of EA sellers to hide information that is easily available and to make the showing of live trading results a shadowy process based on screenshots and html statements when having transparency is as simple as offering a live, investor access verified myfxbook account.

This month we saw the release of forex bullet proof which was pushed hardly by affiliates with a massive amount of junk email being sent. After looking at the website we then find nothing but a very dangerous martingale system with very shadowy "evidence" of profitability that is certainly NOT reliable and makes us become very suspicious about the ability of this system to be profitable in the long term. Anyway, I invite you to watch this month's videos to learn more about these trading systems and the reliability of the evidence they provide.

If you are having problems watching the videos please remember that you need the free DivX codec or player available here.

Forex Bullet Proof, an unbiased review

Forex SAS, an unbiased review

Forex MeltDown, an unbiased review

Forex Morning Trade, an unbiased review

FX Wealth Machine, an unbiased review

Forex CounterAttack, an unbiased review

I hope you enjoy this week's videos. As always please remember that the burden of proof is on the seller's live accounts and NOT on your own. You should not buy any trading system out of faith and the EA sellers should ALWAYS provide reliable evidence of long term profitability. Remember that every time an EA seller avoids showing evidence, it is for a VERY good reason.

If you would like to learn how to make your own automated trading systems and gain a true education about algorithmic trading and how to design systems with realistic profit and draw down values using sound trading techniques please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach automated trading in general . I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

Thursday, August 19, 2010

New Review Methodology : Releasing my First Monthly EA Review Update ! :o)

Certainly there have been a lot of new expert advisors being released every month and writing a post review for each one started to seem like a huge task that didn't make a lot of sense since many of the trading system's being released don't even have the slightest hint of reliable evidence of profitability. Due to the fact that I consider reviews very important but due to the fact that I also consider that my written posts can be devoted to more practical and educational matters I have decided to give my reviews a total turn around, changing the way in which they are done and shared. On today's post I will be sharing these changes with you as well as the first monthly update of expert advisor video reviews :o)

The problem was actually very simple. There are many new expert advisors coming up every month and writing reviews for each one of them would have taken a lot of time and typing hand-stress. However stopping my reviews never seemed like a very good option because I consider that one of the most important aspects of my mission here in fxreviews is to inform others about my opinion regarding new trading systems and their merit (or more commonly the lack of it) in forex trading. I believe that many new traders have taken a lot of benefit from my views and the ways in which I review systems and for this reason I have decided to continue doing reviews, albeit in an entirely different way.

How will reviews be presented now ? From now on I will publish a monthly post in which I will include links to video reviews of most of the trading systems released that month. Each video will include the same material as my previously written reviews although now people will be able to follow me around the evidence and hear my opinion about the trading systems. Before recording the reviews I still perform my in-depth analysis of the systems and their evidence and I share it with you by going through each system's website on each one of the videos.

I believe that this new review-sharing mechanism is not only far easier from a technical point of view (when a lot of reviews need to be done) but it also allows traders to get the information faster and too see the problems and specific failures of the different trading systems in a much more straightforward manner. This also allows me to easily pinpoint links or other sources where people might find evidence relevant to the different systems (such as the free systems a scam system might be based on). As always my reviews will attempt to offer an unbiased perspective with evidence as the main focus of their findings.

This month I have reviewed several different trading systems. The review video links are highlighted below (please download the free divx video player here if you cannot watch the videos).

- Pip brains unbiased review

- 4xhotbot unbiased review

- Forex legend unbiased review

- Forex Onslaught unbiased review

- Forex Supersonic unbiased review

- NonameBot unbiased review

- FAMDrone unbiased review

- Forex Euro System unbiased review

- Forex Supreme Complexity unbiased review

- Forex Hippo unbiased review

- Forex JackHammer unbiased review

- Forex Set and Forget unbiased review

- Forex Outbreak unbiased review

- Forex Shockwave unbiased review

I hope you enjoy the reviews and consider them as good - or perhaps even better - than my previously written contributions. I definitely enjoyed making them and I believe they will do a great job at informing people about the general quality and extent of the evidence and actual potential for long term profitability that these systems have. As always, remember that my approach is based on the fact that the burden of proof is on the authors of trading systems and NOT on our live accounts. Please follow this link to learn more about how I review systems and what you should know about my methods.

Of course feel free to live any comments with any opinions, comments, suggestions, observations, etc :o). If would also like to learn more about my journey in automated trading and how you can gain a true education in this field to design your OWN systems based on sound trading tactics please consider joining Asirikuy.com, a website filled with educational videos, trading systems, development and a sound, honest and transparent approach to trading systems. I hope you enjoyed this article ! :o)

Monday, July 5, 2010

Forex Expert Advisors : Forex Kagi, an Unbiased Review

On this post I will start the review of trading systems that have come out during the months of May-June 2010 focusing my efforts on those expert advisors that have received the highest media and community attention. On today's post I will be reviewing an automated trading system called Forex Kagi which promises to use an "ancient Japanese trading technique" to grant to unprecedented success in forex trading. Through the following paragraphs I will be going through all the trading evidence shown by the people at the forex kagi website, I will see if the evidence is able to backup the claims of profitability made by the authors and I'll give you my opinion about whether or not I consider forex kagi worth buying and testing.

Overall forex Kagi follows up on the formula of most of its predecessors regarding marketing. A website with an introductory video filled with relatively poor information about the trading system followed by a website filled with similarly poor content with relatively no information about the way it trades the market and its actual risk and profit characteristics. The Forex Kagi software falls into what I would call an "empty promise". The website goes on and on about the "virtues" of the software, its very favorable risk to reward ratio, small stop loss values, high accuracy, etc, however there is NO evidence on the whole website that shows this to be true.

It is very difficult for me to believe that people try to sell software with such lack of general evidence to backup their claims of profitability. The forex kagi website shows no simulations of performance nor a live trading record to backup its claims. Therefore this website could just be made up without even having a decent product to sell. All the information we have is a bunch of pictures of "trades" anyone could have drawn with any decent trading software and there is just NO information regarding the trading performance of this system.

How are you supposed to trade something that doesn't show the slightest evidence of being profitable ? How do you trade a piece of software that shows no evidence at all ? The developers of Forex Kagi should get serious and understand that performance MUST be demonstrated through live , investor-access verified trading results and that a simple "tale" of what the software is supposed to trade like is just not enough.

Of course, due to the overwhelming lack of any evidence on the forex kagi's website I consider this trading system NOT worth buying and testing. I would have to see ten year simulations, 6 months of live testing and a consistency test between simulation and live results before considering to buy this product. Right now this is nothing but an over hyped tale of a piece of software which has trading results that are simply unknown to us. With no evidence of profitability or the profit and draw down targets of this system how can they expect anyone to buy it ?

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and what characteristics you should look for on a likely long term profitable system please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Forex Expert Advisors : Forex Galactico, an Unbiased Review

Continuing with my ongoing review of recently released systems I am now going to review the Forex Galactico expert advisor. This trading software claims to be able to earn you 24K "in just one day" and put an end to your days of losses in forex trading. Is this true ? In order to get this answer I will first analyze the evidence of profitability provided on the website to see if it is able to backup the claims made by the authors. I will then analyze the trading tactic used by the system and I will give you my opinion about whether or not this trading system is worth buying and testing. After reading my review you will be able to see if the sellers of this piece of software are being honest or if they are intentionally hiding or not showing any evidence vital to prove the system's profitability and analyze the soundness of its trading strategy.

The forex Galactico follows the same scheme as your regular EA selling website. It gives you an underdog story, it shows you backtesting summary screen shots, it shows you parts of statements, some screen shots of "trades", etc. The website claims in several parts that these screen shots are "proof" of profitability but the truth is that these people couldn't be more wrong.

First of all, the whole "proof" the authors of Forex Galactic talk about is merely backtesting information. Now not only is this backtesting information not reliable without investor-access verified live trading results to test consistency but the information shown is incomplete and banners are used intentionally to cover places that show VERY important information about the trading system's strategy. The text banners placed on top of the backtesting summary screens doesn't allow us to see key information such as the maximum draw down and risk to reward ratio of the trading strategy.

The parts of statements used are also cleverly covered by banners so that we are totally unable to see the TP and SL values something that could point out to the use of unsound trading tactics (like martingale trading) or the use of trading strategies that inevitably lead to unreliable simulations (such as very small TP values). So in general the people at forex galactico are deliberately placing banners to hinder our ability to extract information about the trading system and its used tactic.

I find this voluntary cover-up of statements insulting and I think that - at the least - they could have offered a link to the full statements, of course, this could have led us to find some information that would jeopardize their sales. Backtests are also limited and there is no access to 10 year backtesting results. Why is this the case ? Obviously most systems that do not show 10 year backtesting results simply avoid doing so because they FAIL completely over extensive periods of simulation either because they are curve fitted or because they use unsound money management techniques.

However, even if complete backtesting statements were available there is still the complete absence of LIVE testing results. It is absolutely ESSENTIAL to have live investor-access verified results to test the validity of the simulations and the actual real life performance of the trading system. The fact that NO live statements are available with investor information points out that the people at Forex Galactico simply don't want to use their system with real money on live accounts. If these people don't want to risk their own money on their own system, why should you ? Why don't they run their own system if it is so profitable ? The answers to these questions makes them almost rhetorical.

Due to the absolute LACK of any reliable evidence and the obvious intent to hide parts of the shown backtesting summaries I consider the forex galactico trading system NOT worth buying and testing. The authors would need to add 10 year backtesting results showing the FULL statements PLUS investor access verified live accounts with at least 6 months of results and a live/back testing consistency analysis to validate the simulations in order for me to rewrite this review. Meanwhile this trading system is just - yet another - over hyped piece of trading software with absolutely no reliable evidence of long term profitability.

If you would like to learn more about system development and how you too can learn to develop systems that have a high like hood of being long term profitable please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Forex Expert Advisors : Forex Illusion, an Unbiased Review

Going on with my review of recently released automated trading systems today I will be analyzing the Forex Illusion trading system. This expert advisor promises you will "beat the dealer" and achieve long term profitability in the forex market even if you don't have any previous forex trading experience or if you have "battled with forex" for a long time. On the following paragraphs I will go through this trading system's website, I will talk about the evidence provided by the author and I will tell you if this evidence is reliable enough to backup the claims of profitability made by the author. After doing this analysis and looking at the system's trading tactics I will then tell you my opinion about whether or not this trading system is worth buying and testing.

The Forex Illusion's system website is actually quite odd since it lacks any of the usual "letter type" structure the general expert advisor selling websites have. The only thing you see when you access the website is a video that tells you the general "underdog story" and shows you the evidence of profitability available and the claims made by the author. The video is obviously targeted at forex newbies, as the author tries to sympathize with them, telling a story of how he "bit the brokers" and achieved millions of dollars in forex trading. The story tells us how the guy went from being a mail man to a millionaire.

Truth be told, this trading system just falls short on almost every aspect. The evidence of "live trading" that the author shows is nothing but a visual backtest of a period of just a few months which tells us absolutely nothing about this trading system. It is amazing that anyone tries to sell a trading system on such a small and just worthless piece of evidence. What does a few minutes of visual backtesting tell us ? Nothing ! Where are the full 10 year backtesting statements showing us the long term profit and draw down targets ? Where are the LIVE investor access verified accounts ? where is REAL proof of profitability ?

Again, another person attempts to exploit the new trader by making up a story, doing a visual backtesting of a strategy and pretending to have turned into a forex millionaire. If half of this guy's story was actually true, he would have showed a LOT more evidence. This is an obvious lie, if all of this was true you would be looking at the guy's personal trading statements or you would already have a live trading account with at least a few months of trading showing you investor-access verified results.

This is just a bold attempt to sell you something that is worthless with absolutely no reliable evidence of long term profitability through a story you might empathize with. I think it is pathetic and I think that anyone who has any respect for the intelligence of their customers would have made the effort to open up live accounts, give investor access information and run 10 year backtests. Because of the incredible lack of evidence I consider this expert advisor absolutely NOT worth buying or testing.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you can develop your own likely long term profitable systems with sound and realistic profit and risk targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Forex Expert Advisors : Forex Samurai, an Unbiased Review

Continuing with my review of the recently released trading systems I will now dedicate a post to the analysis of the Forex Samurai trading software. This expert advisors is actually quite different from other commercially available systems since the robot does not actually make trades automatically in virtue of a fixed logic but it merely duplicated signals which are received from a third party which is - as the website says - a professional source that has a lot of experience and profitability in forex trading. On this post I will look at the evidence of profitability provided on the system's website and I will tell you what I think about this service's trading tactics and whether or not I consider it worth buying and testing.

Forex Samurai attempts to give us the ideal solution to long term profitability. By allowing a human trader to be behind the signals you receive on your trading platforms, this expert advisor allows you to trade - ideally - in the exact same way as the successful, professional trader behind the server, entering the actual trades. It sounds like a really good concept but I believe that the people behind Forex Samurai fail to show evidence that what they promise is actually real.

The most concerning fact here is that they claim to take a 10K account into more than 190K in less than a year. Their proof of this is a "live statement" that actually is just an html table which could have been created by anyone with basic html coding language. The truth here is that the so-called "evidence" of profitability they are showing you could just be MADE UP. We have seem time after time after time how EA sellers have forged statements, modified loses, made up whole accounts, etc, just to fool people into buying their products and for this reason you should NOT believe that something is real unless it is PROVED.

What is proved ? If the accounts they show are indeed real, the people at forex samurai should show the INVESTOR ACCESS information to those accounts or AT LEAST an investor access verified myfxbook account. This mode of verification is widely known in forex trading and the only reason why I believe they aren't offering it yet is because their accounts are simply not real or they are simply not live accounts. They may be trading on demo and portraying their results as "real money" when in fact they could not be or they may just be making up ALL the statements. The published statements they have on an mt4 reporting website are also NO proof of profitability since these statements can also be forged and easily uploaded. Again, investor access verification is the ONLY true way in which the real character of a trading account can be verified.

Besides this overall lack of live account verification we also have a general lack of a track record for the signals and we don't have a good idea about the profit and draw down targets. Certainly -once investor access is verified - it would be necessary to analyze the draw down periods of this system and the average compounded yearly profit to maximum draw down ratio. However I would still approach this signals carefully since the lack of backtesting (due to the human character of the signals) makes the actual long term profitability of the system a little bit uncertain.

However, if the statements are real and the people at forex Samurai did indeed achieve to take a 10K account to 190K in under 3 years I would be glad to start using their service since they would have shown an amazing edge over the market. Sadly none of the accounts have any verification that tells us that there are REAL accounts or that they are indeed accounts with REAL money. The most probable cause of this - as I have pointed out before - is mainly that one of these two things isn't true and that something shady is going on. It is hard to believe that with such impressive results the people at forex samurai wouldn't bother to take 5 minutes to verify their account's investor access in myfxbook or - even more simple - put the investor access information DIRECTLY on the website. Since the performance records shown on the website are NOT verified and could simply be forgeries I consider this trading system NOT worth buying and testing.

Nonetheless, if they give investor access information to ALL the trading accounts shown and they prove to be live accounts on reputable brokers I will gladly change my recommendation. If you however would like to learn more about automated trading and how you can code your own systems based on sound trading tactics with realistic profit and draw down expectations please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Forex Expert Advisors : Forex STF, an Unbiased Review

On this post I will deal with the review of one of the most recently released automated trading systems. This expert advisor promises gains of more than 1440% with small draw down levels and claims profitable trades of +600 trades. Will the Forex STF system be able to live up to its claims ? On the following paragraphs I will be reviewing this expert's website, particularly I will take a deep look at the evidence and trading tactics used by the system to evaluate their reliability and whether or not they backup the system's claims of profitability. After doing all this analysis I will then give you my opinion of whether or not I consider this EA worth buying and testing and the reasons why I consider this to be the case. Does the Forex STF system stand a chance ? Keep reading to find out !

First of all, let us CUT the lies right from the start. There is absolutely NOTHING dealing with genetic algorithms within the programming code of Forex STF. Several people on some forums have done decompilations of the code and they have seen that the Forex STF doesn't use any form of adaptive technique. It uses the SAME OLD method used by all regular indicator based expert advisors out there. So right from the start, this is just a BOLD LIE from the developers. There is cutting edge adaptive technology or anything similar within the EA, it is just your regular EA coded like any other trading system and using FIXED none adaptive parameters. I don't understand why the people at Forex STF made up this lie if this fact wasn't true, if a system is good you can just sell it without making things like this up. Come on, people are not stupid.

To say that the system's website is a disappointment would be an understatement. I find it rather insulting to the customer and to the intelligence of any serious forex trader. The "live accounts" shown on the website are NOT investor access verified through myfxbook nor is their investor access information given and their actual html layout seems to be taken out of a simple backtest. It is truly amazing to see the way in which this sellers attempt to deceive people - if not criminal - it is absolutely unethical. It is quite obvious here that NO live accounts actually exist.

Why don't the people at Forex STF show us myfxbook statements of the live accounts ? Why isn't investor access information given ? The answers to these questions are pretty obvious. There are probably NO real live accounts and the so called "evidence" shown is just made-up from backtesting results. However, even when dealing with backtesting results Forex STF fails to show us any evidence. We see no full backtesting statements and NO ten year backtesting proof is shown. This just shows you that Forex STF is a desperate attempt to try to sell you something that isn't worth a nickel a downright dishonest and unethical attempt to lure new traders into buying a piece of software with absolutely NO evidence of profitability, lying about the characteristics of the software and live performance results.

For the overall LACK of reliable evidence and the fact that they have lied about the tactics used by the software I consider this trading system NOT worth buying and testing and in fact, it is yet another example of the EA sellers most people desperately try to avoid. Of course, I would gladly change this review if investor access information is added for the accounts and the TRUTH about the tactics used by the system is given. Why are you saying you use genetic algorithms if you just don't ?

If you would like to learn more about expert advisors and how you too can start to code systems that have a real fighting chance in the market with sound trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Thursday, May 27, 2010

Forex Expert Advisors : Pro Forex Robot, an Unbiased Review

This article will feature the last of this month's released robots discussing the Pro Forex robot automated trading system. I saved this EA specially for last since there is some very special evidence about the dishonesty and unethical behavior of this seller. However I will leave this for the last bits of the review. First of all - and most importantly - I will evaluate the trading evidence provided by the author and whether or not this evidence is able to backup the author's claims of profitability. I will then go through the evidence to analyze the Pro Forex Robot trading technique and at last I will give you my opinion about whether or not this expert advisor is worth buying and testing. Can you flip a coin and pull a winner at least one of six times ? We'll see if the website is able to proof that the EA can do this.

When you look at the evidence of profitability provided by the author immediately two things come to mind. Backtesting and Martingale. This trading system's only evidence of profitability are 3 year backtesting statements using a martingale trading tactic. I have to state here several of the problems of this evidence starting from the fact that backtests from EA sellers cannot be trusted due to the easy way in which they can be manipulated to introduce either curve-fitting or pre-engineered results through hindsight (yes, we've seen experts coded to trade certain ways for certain years). The fact that the backtesting is limited to 3 years also points out to a dangerous path around curve fitting. Why not backtest this system for the past 10 years ? If it is supposed to be so profitable, then what is the problem ?

The answers to this question does come easily. The only reason why sellers limit their backtests is because their previous results show unprofitability, wipeouts, etc. Otherwise there wouldn't simply be a reason to do so. Now, the fact that this guy relies on a Maringale trading technique is also pretty scary. Many folks out there trade with Martingales and eventually lose their accounts, Martingales do not work and they will never be able to be consistent in the long term because of their unlimited market exposure. Eventually there will be several consecutive loses. What is the probability of flipping a coin and getting seven times the same face ? exactly 0.0078 or 7 in every thousand, which in trading means - it will happen - sooner than you think. If you think you can get away with doubling your account and then quit and do this profitably even if your account gets wiped you are wrong. The fact that there is no statistical tie between sets of consecutive loses makes even several consecutive wipeouts likely so beware, Martingales do not work. (I have also written several posts about this if you are interested)

Now the funniest part about this EA has to be this guy - Ron Carter - a trader with 28 years of experience in trading who, by the way, turned out to be an online actor by the name of Steve. I laughed out loud when I heard a guy at the donnaforex forum calling this guy out and showing evidence that he wasn't the guy he claimed to be. They immediately removed all the evidence but he kept it and showed it there. You can have access to this here. I am amazed at all the lying that goes on here. You tell people that you are a successful trader selling a system when in reality you are an actor ? Come on ! The real guy behind this is probably a shadowy marketer who hired a programmer who doesn't have the slightest idea nor he/she cares about long term profitability or the well fare of their customers. Shame on you Pro Forex Robot people !

Of course, due to the large lack of evidence, the willingful limiting of the backtests, the total lack of any investor-access verified live trading evidence or any type of back/live testing consistency proof added to the use of an unsound Martingale tactic I consider the Pro Forex Robot NOT worth buying and testing. It is also worth noting that this reveals the overall marketing hype that these sellers use to take customers in - almost harmless when systems do work - but absolutely devastating when they don't. When people are new and vulnerable in this field it is very easy for these wolf-like marketers to prey on them very efficiently by making all these fake actors and videos inspire confidence when in reality all that there is is a very lacking system with very little and unreliable proof of profitability. By the way, the US trading institute doesn't exist ;o).

If you would like to learn more about automated trading systems and how you too can build your own reliable likely long term profitable systems based on adaptive and sound money management tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Forex Expert Advisors : Forex Money Train, an Unbiased Review

One of the latest expert advisors released is this system called Forex Money Train. This system claims to give people the ability to get significant profits from the forex market and achieve financial freedom in a short period of time. The system claims large sums of profit like 20-30K per trade and promises traders to win with a 90% of profitable trades. On today's review I will examine the Forex Money Trade expert advisor, I will go through all the evidence presented on the system's website and I will take a look at the system's trading tactic. In the end I will put together all the available evidence and I will tell you if the system is able to backup its claims of profitability and if it is or it is not - in my opinion - worth buying and testing.

The Forex Money Train website starts like many other automated trading sites with promises of financial freedom, high winning percentages and market adaptability. However, when it comes to show trading evidence of these claims, the Forex Money Train not only falls short, but actually fails to deliver any reliable evidence of profitability.

The first and only evidence shown on the website is a snapshot of two "live trading" account which are both old, short and unverified. It is incredible that an EA seller expects to be able to sell a system with statements that are more than 6 months old, less than one month long, abruptly stopped and absolutely unverified. What information do you get from this testing evidence ? What I see is a system that was briefly tested on what probably was a demo account and then stopped as soon as some big unprofitable results started to show. The statements shown are a complete joke with less than a week of trading length and no continued updating.

Besides the fact that the statements shown are short and old, they are also unverified. Since there is absolutely no investor access information we cannot tell if the statements are indeed real or if they are manipulated, created from nothing or simply the consequence of trading on a demo account. For any serious EA seller, the absolute verification of the live trading statements is absolutely VITAL to ensure that the system has a high like hood of long term profitability.

On top of this lack of reliable live or demo testing evidence we also have that the backtesting results of the system are not presented. Why isn't any backtesting shown ? When EA sellers do not show any backtesting statements, it becomes obvious that their expert advisor is not able to perform accurately under a wide variety of different market conditions. When this unwillingness to show backtests is coupled with a total absence of live-updated live investor-access verified accounts then we are talking about a seller than simply wants to sell his EA without having to give any serious proof of long term profitability.

The so called "proof" of trades is also a mere joke. It is very easy to hand-pick trades of any strategy to make it appear as the best strategy ever when in reality it loses equity in the long term. Due to the complete lack of ANY reliable evidence, the old, short and unverified live tests and the total lack of backtests, I consider this trading system NOT worth buying and testing. If the seller wants me to change my review he should provide 10 year backtests and 6 months of investor-access live results coupled with 6 months of backtesting statements of this same period to show consistency. Until then, the Forex Money Train falls into the pile along with the thousands of experts that are now part of the overhyped EA graveyard.

If you would like to gain an education around automated trading and truly understand how to develop and use long term profitable systems please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Forex Expert Advisors : The Forex Revolution, an Unbiased Review

Today its the turn of yet another of the recently released trading systems called "forex revolution". The forex revolution is however not only about systems but about the creation of a community around expert advisor development centered around the experts developed by the revolution's programmers. On today's post I will write my review about the forex revolution, I will go through the community's/expert's website and talk to you about the trading evidence available and if this evidence is able to backup their claims of profitability. I will also evaluate the currently available results and comment on the soundness of the trading strategy used and finally I will tell you whether or not - in my opinon - this system(s) is worth buying and testing.

It is a little bit difficult to write a review about a project such as the forex revolution. Since the idea of this website is to build a community about system development, new systems and evidence may arise in the future which I may not take into account within this review. If there is some new evidence available when you read this that is not mentioned here please leave a comment and I will go again to the website and modify the review accordingly.

However right now the forex revolution only has one trading system named REVOBOT1 which they claim to be a non-scalper that trades the EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD. The backtesting results of this trading system are not very impressive since they are oddly limited to the past three years and have a 3:1 risk to reward ratio, meaning that three winning trades are needed to recover from each loss. As you may know, backtesting statements from EA sellers cannot be trusted because they are easily manipulated and changed and therefore live testing results are a must to judge the quality of a trading system. In particular, live/back testing consistency of at least a 6 month period is needed to validate any backtesting results.

When it comes to live testing results, the forex revolution is a disappointment. The only evidence of live trading on the website is a statement which although seemingly live updating, lacks any investor access verification meaning that this might be a demo account and not a live trading account. For the moment results for this trading system on this unverified account are very short and therefore a comparison with a backtest of the same period is not useful. From an evidence verification perspective, the forex revolution fails to give any reliable evidence of long term profitability for their REVOBOT1 system. Besides, they mention several times that they made profit with the system (for example "we all made 24% more the next week" (shown below)) so why don't they show investor-access verified access to these accounts that allegedly made those profits ? I think you can answer this question.
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When it comes to the community approach of the forex revolution, I cannot tell you from the outside how good it is or if it has any effectiveness in improving trading systems. However, from the point of view of an experienced person in automated trading, I can tell you that community efforts - when not guided correctly - almost always end up with a bunch of short term modifications that are not based on statistically relevant information that end up taking the systems to a point where there is an obsession with short term draw downs and a fast implementation of unsound trading tactics. I do hope that the forex revolution achieves a better fate if this is really their objective.

Right now I can tell you that the forex revolution with its current expert called REVOBOT1 does not have enough evidence to say that the system is likely long term profitable. The system has very limited backtests (why don't they show 10 year tests ?) and extremely limited and unverified live tests that do not allow us to draw conclusions about the system's profitability. For this reason I consider the forex revolution not worth joining and REVOBOT1 not worth buying and testing. If they are truly serious about the development of their systems then they should add 10 year profitable backtests, 6 months of investor-access verified live testing results and then compare live and backtesting results to prove consistency. They should also add their current live testing results to myfxbook to confirm that the account is a live and not a demo trading account. Once they introduce this necessary changes I will be happy to change my review to reflect the new evidence. Meanwhile, the forex revolution seems to offer yet another expert with very limited and unreliable evidence of profitability. Remember that I am always happy to give systems positive reviews as long as they have the above mentioned evidence which is absolutely VITAL to say that any system has a high like hood of being long term profitable.

If you would like to know more about how you can create your own automated trading systems to achieve realistic profit and draw down targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Forex Expert Advisors : 4x Cash Compounder, an Unbiased Review

One of the most recently released trading systems is the 4x Cash Compounder expert advisor. On today's post I will write a review about this system which will first analyze the evidence provided by the authors and then compare this evidence with the claims made on the website to see if the 4x Cash Compounder can actually prove its claims of profitability. After analyzing if the EA does have enough evidence to backup its claims I will analyze the soundness of the trading tactic used by the system and give you my opinion about whether or not this trading system is worth buying and testing.

In the beginning of the website we have very common - yet rarely proven - claim. The website clearly states "A Robot that Works !". Is this actually true ? Does the 4x Cash Compounder has enough evidence to say that it will provide you with profits for a long time into the future ? The website says that the EA works day in and day out, month in and month out. Could all this be true ?

And then, reality kicks in. What evidence do the people at 4x Cash Compounder give us ? Almost nothing. The author of this EA only gives a very limited five month backtest on his website that reveals several problems with this trading system's stratedy. First of all, the backtest is done on 5 minute charts, which has an inherently lower modeling quality and second, the tests are limited only to the past 5 months. Morevoer - and most dangerous - this expert uses a Martingale trading technique which puts large chunks of your account balance at risk as the number of loses continues to grow, effectively taking you towards a wipeout in the future.

Why is the backtesting limited to 5 months ? Watching the trading tactic of this system it becomes evident that this expert may fail bluntly with a long enough backtest. Looking at a 5 month period you can already see the spikes of volume inherent to Martingale trading and looking at further testing periods is only bound to increase the problem. Why in the world would a company choose to give 5 months of simulations instead of 10, 20 or 100 ? The answer is obviously simple, this trading system is most likely a time bomb that is bound to wipe your account eventually. All martingales eventually fail and this one wouldn't be the exception.

Then we have the next obvious problem which is the lack of live testing evidence. If the creators of the 4x cash compounder are so sure about its profitability then why in the world don't they show live investor-access verified accounts with the trading resutls of their own EA ? Why aren't there any live results at all ? Everytime you see an EA seller that does not show investor-access verified results you are looking at a seller who simply doesn't trust his money with his product. Why would you trust your money if the guy who created the software doesn't even mind ?

Overall the 4x Cash Compounder is nothing but another overhyped trading system with very limited evidence and an obvious will to hide additional evidence that could prove the expert to be unprofitable. For this reason, the lack of complete backtests and any live testing results plus, because of the use of a very risky Martingale technique, this system is -in my opinion- absolutely NOT worth buying and testing. In order for me to even consider rewriting this review the owner would need to provide 10 year backtests, eliminate the Martingale progression and provide a 6 month investor-access verified live test coupled with a backtest of this same period to prove consistency. In the meantime... Another piece of worthless hype goes to the EA trash can.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can code your own systems with reliable profit and risk targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Forex Expert Advisors : Forex Ironman, an Unbiased Review

Continuing with the reviewing of automated trading systems that were recently released today I will be writing about a new trading system called Forex Ironman. This expert advisor claims to make a 308% profit in less than 17 months with minimal risk to your trading account. On today's reviewI will analyze the evidence provided by the author of this EA and I will tell you if this evidence is enough to backup the expert advisor's claims of profitability. After this I will also go through the expert's trading evidence and tell you my opinion about the expert's trading tactic and its potential for long term profitability. Finally I will end this review by telling you my opinion about whether or not the Forex Ironman is worth buying and testing.

The Forex Ironman starts its website with some very bold claims of profitability as well as an obvious and unethical breach of Marvel Copyright. I understand that it is a good marketing technique to use a currently "fashionable" name to sell a product but in doing so and using imagery which reminds you of the movie the author is in fact in infringement of copyright laws (at least in the US).

However lets go back to what we care about. The authors of the Forex Ironman then attempt to show us what they call "evidence of profitability", what we have here is a set of backtesting results, partial cuts from backtesting statements and pictures of hand-picked trades which may or may not be a real part of the backtesting results. In reality we have seen many times how expert advisor sellers include pictures of trades that would have been actually never taken by the system just to make it look more profitable or with a better risk to reward ratio.

The backtesting evidence of the Forex Ironman is very limited, with 2 years of backtesting results at most showing us that a very good chunk of backtesting that could have been done from 2000-2008 was avoided for some reason. Why do you think an EA seller would avoid showing some backtesting results ? The absence of backtesting periods usually means that the system under performed under those market conditions or that the data was curve-fitted to show excellent results during the past few years of trading. This means that the system is inherently flawd and has no adaptation to changes in market conditions. Additionally the complete lack of any live testing evidence points to the fact that the creators of this trading system don't trust it enough to use it themselves. Why isn't there an investor-access verified live testing statement ?

The fact is that the Forex Ironman just shows us backtesting results which are probably curve-fitted and unreliable (plus a very unsound 10:1 risk to reward ratio). If the expert was able to adapt to changes in market conditions and succeed under varied markets then the sellers wouldn't have had any problem to show us 10 year backtests and live trading results. It is very important to note here that the absence of live trading results points to the fact that this expert is probably not going to perform in the same way as it does in backtesting. Again, if their system was so good, why wouldn't they test it first ?

Overall the Forex Ironman is just another attempt of the people at Next Generation to sell an overhyped system that lacks any reliable evidence of long term profitability. Backtests can be easily curve fitted and manipulated and therefore live/back testing consistency is always needed to prove the profitability of any trading system. If this people really care about their customers they should show 10 years of backtesting results with an investor-access verified live account. Meanwhile, due to the obvious lack of evidence and what seems to be intentional limitation and fitting of backtesting results, I consider this trading system NOT worth buying and testing. Remember that the burden of proof is always on the EA seller NOT on your live accounts !

If you would like to know more about automated trading and how you too can design reliable systems that can adapt to changes in market conditions please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Forex Expert Advisors : Forex Massacre, an Unbiased Review

Today we are going to take a look at a system that was developed allegedely by a seven figure forex trader. This trading system- named Forex Massacre- claims to be able to do several interesting things like making more than 20K every month or thousands of dollars per trade. Today I am going to go through this system's website analyzing the evidence provided by the author and judging if this evidence is enough to backup the author's claims. After carefully analyzing the whole website I will try to analyze the expert's trading tactic giving you my opinion about the system's like hood of being long term profitable and whether or not this system is worth buying and testing.

I can say with total confidence that this forex masscre system seems to be a total insult to customer intelligence. The website talks a lot about the benefits of the system, huge monthly profits, no need for previous knowledge about forex trading, more than 90% winning rate up to date but the system never shows any proof of profitability. It is certainly like these marketers are not even trying anymore. Why in the world would someone buy a trading system based on a few pictures ? The fact is taht any of those screenshots of "trades" could have been draw by anyone with photoshop (even paint) and a metatrader 4 platform. These screenshots of trades do not tell as anything as even if they were actually real they are hand picked and do not say a thing about the long term profitability of this trading system.

What does the website of forex massacre actually tell us ? Absolutely nothing ! The website is a whole venture of hype coupled with a few - probably hand drawn - pictures of trades that may or may not be in line with the reality of the way in which this system trades the market. I think that it takes a lot of nerve and dishonesty to sell a system that does not have the slightest evidence of profitability. Where are the backtests ? Where are the live tests ? If this system is so profitable, then why doesn't the owner show us a 6 month live investor-verified account on a myfxbook link to proof its profitability ?

Sadly I think you guessed right. Probably the creator has never tested this system live and backtesting statements just show a losing system that does not even do well in simulations, otherwise they would have at least placed some backtesting statements on the site. In the end this trading system has absolutely no evidence of profitability (not even evidence of its trading method or tactic) and therefore it is NOT worth buying and testing. In fact, this system is even insulting as it makes you go through 3 pages of reading without showing you any valuable information. I only have two words for this system... Next please !

If you liked this review and you would like to know more about trading system reliability and how you too can determine if a system has potential for long term profitability please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Forex Expert Advisors : Forex Kinetics (FX-Kits), an Unbiased Review

This review will begin a series of posts about the most recently released expert advisor. On this post I want to talk to you about an expert advisor released by a trader named Daniel Su, who appears to be from Singapore. As almost all forex robots, the forex kinetics (FX-Kit) system claims to be capable of generating consistent returns under varied market conditions with absolutely no intervention from the expert's user. On today's review I will go through the expert's website, analyzing the author's claims and evidence and I will tell you if - according to my opinion - this trading system is worth buying and testing.

The first sentence on this website already started to bother me as I read the word "guaranteed", expert advisor sellers must be clear in that no profits can be guaranteed and that past performance never guarantees future results. An effort can always be made to ensure that trading systemswill have the pwoer to adapt to changes in market conditions but, since no one knows the future, saying that certain profit or consistency is guaranteed is nothing more than an unethical marketing tactic (which is not surprisingly used).

As with most trading systems, the website goes on and on about the trading system's ability to adapt to changes in market conditions and its unique features which allow it to remain hidden from brokers and trade differently - yet efficiently - for all of its users. The system claims that it is able to change its entries between different traders such that trades would never be the same (I wonder how you can match performance then ?).

When it comes to trading evidence, I have to say that this system falls short by a very long shot. The evidence shown of "live testing" is not investor access verified and - on top of that - trading has stopped on all accounts a few months back. How can you buy any trading system that just shows you a few months worth of trading evidence ? Why in the world would you risk your own hard-earned money if not even the tester is willing to load his expert advisor on his account and place some investor-access information ? I think that the author of the forex kinetics (FX-Kit) trading system should place investor access information or myfxbook account links if he wishes to present reliable live testing evidence. What we have right now could simply be a small profitable period after which the account was wiped or it could simply be a made up statement with a made up graph. Even if the results are indeed real, we cannot know if they were run on demo or live accounts due to the lack of investor information.

There is also a very suspicious lack of backtesting information which is almost always shown on expert advisor selling websites. Why doesn't the owner show us a 10 year backtest if his system is able to adapt to changes in market conditions ? If this backtesting information cannot be shown then how are we supposed to know if the claims are real ? Should people risk money on an untested system that has no prove of profitability or reliability across different market conditions ?

In the end, the overall lack of any realiable evidence makes the claims made by the author lack any susbtantial support and therefore this trading system called forex kinetics (FX-Kit) is absolutely NOT worth buying and testing. If the author wishes to provide reliable proof of profitability then live investor-access verified myfxbook links should be provided coupled with 10 years of backtesting results. I always write these suggestions with the hope that sellers will just run the tests and show me the evidence in an honest fashion but I have to say that - up until now - this has never actually been the case.

If you have liked this review and you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can learn how to design and use your own systems based on reliable trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

An Important Decision...No More Reviews on the Front Page

Through the past several months of everyday posting, I have realized that my Asirikuy visitors are divided between two specific types. There are some people who are quite new to automated trading and find my website through search engines and those who have been following my website for a while and read it almost everyday. By talking to people and analyzing their browsing habits on both sides I have reached an important decision for my blog. From now on I will not be posting any reviews on the front page. On today's post I will be explaining the reasons behind this decision and I will also explain the consequences I think it will have related to both types of website visitors.

If you have been a frequent visitor of Reviewing Everything Forex, then perhaps you have already seen that most of the commercial systems out there are not worth buying and testing for me. In the end, reviews start to get very boring and they seem to repeat the same story over and over and over again. I have been accussed of upselling my own products (because that would certainly make me a millionaire :o) - sarcastic note) and even of bashing every system without any consideration.

Those of you who have been Asirikuy members or readers for a while know that I am a very rational person and that I only review the evidence I see. As a matter of fact, I almost never say that a system is unprofitable but what I say with exhausting repetition is that systems do not have enough evidence to be considered profitable. In the end, if commercial sellers want to prove their point, they should just provide reliable evidence. Nothing more ! I am not asking for 30 years of live testing, I merely ask for 10 years of backtesting with 6 months of live/back testing consistency analysis. But what a difficult thing this is to provide when your system is actually not reliable :o) (my own attempt at drawing a cartoon shown below)
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I however consider reviewing an important part of this site since getting people away from commercial experts that simply cannot backup their claims of profitability is a vital aspect of my social job in automated trading. Even if people never buy one of my products, the fact that they didn't fall prey to any one of this unethical affiliate sellers or scammers out there is valuable enough for me as a personal achievement.

In the end I have seen that people who find my reviews of commercial systems do so through search engines while they often never find them through forum links or direct access. Publishing reviews on the first page therefore only has the effect of boring my faithful readers (who aren't that interested in commercial system reviews) and driving very little traffic from non-search engine sources. For this reason I have decided that reviews from now on will be published within the website but they will never show on the front page. Everyday there will be a fresh article about automated or forex trading and any of you interested on a system's review can search it through the label drop-down list on the left hand-side menu or simply google fxreviews and the name of the expert advisor to have it show up. I think that in the long term this solution would satisfy both my long-term readers and the new forex traders looking for some insights about the latest forex product.

What do you think about this decision ? Do you agree, disagree ? Any input will be highly appreciated ! Of course, if you would like to learn more about my work and would like to support me without any upselling pressure please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Proving the Profitability of Scalpers... Not an Easy Thing to Do

One of the things I get most criticized about is my evaluation of trading systems which have small TP and SL targets. People often do not understand the reasons why I do not recommend products that seem to be generating "a lot" of money for traders using them. I have been sent from time to time statements from several EA vendors and from third party users showing the excellent results of some commercial and freely available scalpers and they all look surprised when my replies all say the same thing : "your results are not statistically significant", "your results are not reliable", etc. Today I want to explain a little bit more the problem with scalper profitability and why there is currently no scalper available which has statistically significant and reliable evidence of profitability. For the purpose of this article I will define a scalper as any system that has an average profit target of less than 10 times the spread or which closes positions - in average - in less than 5 minutes.

What is the deal with these scalpers and their profitability ? The problems are several and may not be evident to people who are new or inexperienced in the field of automated trading. As a matter of fact, even people who have been trading automated systems for years may not see them clearly if they have never applied a strong mathematical analysis to what they are doing. However these problems are real and they affect all scalpers - as defined above - equally.

What I see as the two most important problems faced by scalpers are the unreliability of their simulations and their unfavorable risk to reward ratio. In metatrader 4, scalpers cannot have reliable simulations mainly because of one minute interpolation errors. These errors which are generated because of the lack of real tick data in metatrader 4 cause both signals derived from price action and position profit targets to be faulted by a significant percentage. This problem wouldn't be particularly bad if the SL value was of the same magnitude as the TP - as both would be affected equally - but the fact that the SL is usually 4-10 times the size of the TP makes these errors absolutely important since a small overestimation in the number of profitable trades equals a great underestimation of draw down.

For example, if you have a trading system that has a 90% winning ratio with a 5:1 risk to reward ratio, a simple overestimation of profitability of 5% in backtesting would equal a 25% increase in the actual draw down suffered by the system. Through the analysis I have done of several systems with small profit targets it is notable that this overestimation is even more important, usually around 15-20% or more depending on the actual closing mechanisms and shortness of the TP.

The most important problem why profit and draw targets cannot be estimated accurately for scalpers - which arises from the unreliability of simulations - is the fact that live execution problems usually greatly diminish profitability in the long term. Variables such as slippage and spread widening - which are not expressed in backtesting - play a decisive role when dealing with automated trading scalping systems.

It is important to note that I am not making these problems up, they are real and ignoring them will have terrible consequences in the long term. In the beginning these problems may not seem apparent as these systems have very high winning ratios and the incoherence with simulations and the appearence of bad losing periods will usually appear later on, after a large number of trades has already been taken.

Does this mean that there are no scalpers that work ? No, that is not what I am saying. What I am saying here is that currently simulations are not valid - because of metatrader limitations - and extensive live evaluation of a statistically significant period - which in the forex market cannot be less than 5 years - is necessary to prove that the systems have a high like hood of being long term profitable. This criteria is derived from extensive statistical analysis of market cycles, a criteria meant to evaluate the performance of a system under very varied conditions. Otherwise, you may just be looking at temporary profit or draw down cycles that may not let you see the global character of the system. For regular systems - with reliable simulations - six months of live/back testing consistency are enough to validate simulations and grant these performance results but for scalpers this simply cannot be done because simulations have all the above mentioned problems - which again - are very real and well documented.

So in the end - yes - there can be a lot of scalping systems showing positive results in live testing results or simulations. However, the fact remains that none of these systems have tests long enough to be considered statistically significant. These systems simply cannot be considered long term profitable because they haven't shown adaptation to varied market conditions and the ability to survive in the long term. So even though they may have positive results, I will never recommend - nor use - any system which does not have enough evidence to consider that I will be able to trade it safely in the long term. Small, statistically insignificant trading results are simply not enough to consider any system likely long term profitable (which means that the system has a high probability to work for the next few decades).

If you would like to learn more about automated trading systems and how you too can code your own reliable systems based on sound trading tactics please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Monday, May 17, 2010

Forex Expert Advisors : Forex Machine Gun, an Unbiased Review

Today I will be revieweing the last of the expert advisors which were released during the past month. This trading system - called forex machine gun - makes some very interesting claims about consistent profitability, controlled risk, normalized returns and non-indicator based trading. During the following paragraphs you will be able to read my review about this trading system starting with a careful analysis of the evidence provided by the authors and the trading tactics used by the system. After carefully looking at all the evidence I will also tell you my views about the like hood of long term profitability for this strategy and whether or not - in my opinion - this system is worth buying and testing.

The Forex Machine Gun has the world Martingale all over its website something which made me thing - in the beginning - that this would be another crappy Martingale system that has absolutely no chance of being profitable in the long term. Then I found out that what they meant was actually a different Martingale tactic called anti-Martingale which increments lot sizes with profitable and not with unprofitable trades. Of course, the anti-Martingale tactic is quiet unusual since it is not very effective for most trading techniques due to the fact that the tactic needs to have considerable streaks of consecutive loses to be successful.

So I was excited to see what evidence the guys at Forex Machine Guy could show to actually back up their claims of profitability based on an anti-Martingale tactic. What I saw was - sadly and not surprisingly - a lot of unreliable evidence. The only thing available on the website to actually say anything about the systems profitability is a video of a backtest shown which lets us see the anti-Martingale tactic in action and the profits it generates on simulations. The problem is mainly that the simulations are carried over the 1 minute time frame so actually results are completely USELESS. When simulations are run on the 1 minute time frame, interpolation errors make 80% of any entries and exits most likely flawed reason why profitability is most likely grossly overestimated and the trading systems simply will perform very differently in live trading.

The use of a lower time frame also suggests that very tight SL and TP values are being chosen, something that also makes the presence of live execution variables - such as spread widening, requotes, off-quotes, etc- of vital importance to address the true profitability of the system. The guys that made Forex Machine Gun don't show any investor-access live updated results, reason why there is simply no way to know if the system trades as it is said on the backtests. There is also an absence of ten year backtesting resutls (which would be worthless either way due to interpolation errors).

So the fact is that to proof that the forex machine gun has any like hood of being long term profitable we would need at least 5 years of investor-access verified live testing results that showed the system trading live, under real execution parameters. The fact that simulations simply CANNOT be accurate for this system forces us to take a long live evaluation approach instead of the usual backtesting and live/back testing consistency path (which although extremely easy NO commercial EA sellers ever take for some reason).

Due to the fact that the system does not have any reliable proof of profitability and due to the fact that no live testing evidence is shown I consider the Forex Machine Gun trading system NOT worth buying or testing. If the creators show 5 years of live testing results using an investor-access verified account I would be glad to redo this review and recommend the trading system.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and how you too can develop systems that give accurate simulations and have a high chance of achieving long term profitability in forex trading please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Sunday, May 16, 2010

Forex Expert Advisors : Fish Forex Robot, an Unbiased Review

On another review I will be examining the Fish Forex Robot expert advisor today. This trading system- which was released a few weeks ago- claims to be able to generate 3000 to 4000 USD every month spending no more than 5 to 7 minutes a day "monitoring the robot". It also claims to be able to "double your account every month" a very bold claim which the author should be able to backup. Within the next few paragraphs I will analyze the trading evidence provided by the author and I will see if it is able to sustain her claims. I will also look into the expert's trading tactics and I will tell you if the Fish Forex Robot has a high like hood of achieving long term profitability and whether or not it is worth buying and testing.

In the beginning you see a big box that tells you that you have two options. The first one is 3-4K of stable income from Fish Forex robot or vague promises of fortune-making strategies. However this is just very misleading and one of the marketing tactics I hate the most because it reflects a general LACK of knowledge from the expert advisor seller. You simply cannot mention any profit without mentioning the necessary intial capital investment. Do you get 3-4K from one million dollars, from 10 dollars, from 1000 ? It is absolutely frustrating to see these claims over and over again with absolutely no basis in real trading.

What we have from here on does not help the trading system's cause either. The seller shows us a backtesting equity curve that - surprise - is that of a Martingale showing how a 1000 USD account turned into 19,000 USD in just a little bit more than 6 months. The backtesting chart and the statements show a five fold increase in lot size with every loss, telling us that not only the system uses progressive money management but it also has a very unfavorable risk to reward ratio. Cleverly all the places where we could infer the risk to reward ratio from have been blurred and all we have to actually think this is the case is the fact that a five fold increase in lot size merely recovers the last loss pointing to a 4:1 risk to reward ratio which - combined with a progressive money management system- is definitely a time bom.

Then we have a "live trading statement". Please, this statement is merely a joke. Anyone could put up an html and makeup that statement and then blur it. If this seller is serious about showing profitability then she should include a REAL live investor-access verified account that TRULY showed live-updated trading results that we know are obtained from a real account with real money. This "live testing evidence" which - even if real - is extremely limited, simply does not contribute to any proof of profitability. What does the seller want to hide ? Why not risk her own money to show the "consistent income" her system can make ?

What we see in the case of the Fish Forex Robot trading system is nothing but a system with a seemingly very unsound trading tactic that has absolutely no reliable evidence of profitability. The author hides backtesting statements, denies 10 year backtesting results, blurs "live trading results" and does not even risk her own money to show us a live investor-access verified account. This system trades a very dangerous game and a few consecutive loses are bound to put you into VERY DEEP draw down if not an account wipeout.

Due to the fact that there is simply no evidence to backup profitability and the fact that the system uses an extremely unsound trading tactic with a very dangerous progressive money management strategy (five fold increase in lot sizes) I consider the Fish Forex Robot NOT worth buying or testing.

If you would like to learn more about automated trading and gain a true education on how you can evaluate and be successful with expert advisors with sound risk and profit targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

Saturday, May 15, 2010

Forex Expert Advisors : Forex Maximizer, an Unbiased Review

Today I will be revieweing one of the new trading systems which has been released over the past few weeks. This trading system - called Forex Maximizer - promises you will be earning an income every month in no time, with consistent results that will "not make you a millionaire" but will allow you to "quit the search for a new 9 to 5 job". As always I will analyze the evidence provided by the author and I will see if they are truly able to backup the claims made on the website. By analyzing the evidence I will also be able to tell you the soundness of the trading system's tactics and whether or not the system has a high like hood of being long term profitable. In the end I will give you my fully unbiased opinion of whether or not this trading system is worth buying and testing.

The Forex Maximizer website starts with the usual marketing hype that we have come to love so much. It talks about the mighty and mystical gurus that don't want you to know their "secret" to profit from the forex market. What particularly bothers me are the statements that follow this guru talk which are just bluntly misleading and which are simply marketing phrases pointed to make people believe that "getting profit in forex is easy", "even if you've never traded", etc. Then the author goes on and on about how most forex robots "suck" and will lose your money but his trading system - which is not a scalper - will have you banking up consistent profits in no time.

However, when it comes to backing up his claims of consistent profitability and actual real earning capabilities this author simply fails bluntly. What we have as evidence of profitability is simply some hand-picked screenshots of trades -which could as well be made by hand- and some pieces of backtesting results and a screenshot of the strategy tester resuts of a one year backtesting statement. We don't have even access to the backtesting statement or the simulations results to adequately know how the simulation turned out.

Why are simulation results limited to only 2009 ? Why aren't 10 year results included ? Why isn't the backtesting statement shown ? These things are all supicious because showing more evidence only makes up a stronger case for the seller and the absence of evidence usually points out that this is simply not the case. Additionally, backtesting statements from commercial EA sellers CANNOT BE TRUSTED because there are simply almost infinite ways in which these results can be manipulated to produce profitable results.

In the end, the maximizer trading system has absolutely no proof of profitability with some very limited backtesting results being the only piece of available evidence, since the backtest is not validated this information is also pretty much useless. There are absolutely NO third party investor-access verified live testing accounts needed to proof the system's profitability and to show actual back/live testing consistency. Why in the world would this guy refuse to show us his statements if his system was so profitable ? Even more, why doesn't he show us his statements if he has - as he says- been trading the system for a while ? It is absolutely amazing that someone with so little proof of profitability is even willing to try to sell a system as if it was profitable.

The fact that there is a willingness to hide evidence shown as an absence of backtesting statements and 10 year backtests and the fact that there is simply no third party investor-access verified live account to backup any claims of profitability and validate the backtests shown tell us that the Forex Maximizer system is simply NOT worth buying and testing. If the seller puts up 10 year backtests and shows a 6 month investor-access verified live test with at least 50 trades (and a backtest of the same live testing period) I will redo this review to include the new evidence. Meanwhile, this trading system is nothing but a part of the usually over-hyped trading systems with little -if actually any- evidence of profitability.

If you would like to find an education about automated trading and how you to can develop systems based on sound trading tactics to achieve realistic risk and profit targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

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