Thursday, May 27, 2010

Forex Expert Advisors : The Forex Revolution, an Unbiased Review

Today its the turn of yet another of the recently released trading systems called "forex revolution". The forex revolution is however not only about systems but about the creation of a community around expert advisor development centered around the experts developed by the revolution's programmers. On today's post I will write my review about the forex revolution, I will go through the community's/expert's website and talk to you about the trading evidence available and if this evidence is able to backup their claims of profitability. I will also evaluate the currently available results and comment on the soundness of the trading strategy used and finally I will tell you whether or not - in my opinon - this system(s) is worth buying and testing.

It is a little bit difficult to write a review about a project such as the forex revolution. Since the idea of this website is to build a community about system development, new systems and evidence may arise in the future which I may not take into account within this review. If there is some new evidence available when you read this that is not mentioned here please leave a comment and I will go again to the website and modify the review accordingly.

However right now the forex revolution only has one trading system named REVOBOT1 which they claim to be a non-scalper that trades the EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD. The backtesting results of this trading system are not very impressive since they are oddly limited to the past three years and have a 3:1 risk to reward ratio, meaning that three winning trades are needed to recover from each loss. As you may know, backtesting statements from EA sellers cannot be trusted because they are easily manipulated and changed and therefore live testing results are a must to judge the quality of a trading system. In particular, live/back testing consistency of at least a 6 month period is needed to validate any backtesting results.

When it comes to live testing results, the forex revolution is a disappointment. The only evidence of live trading on the website is a statement which although seemingly live updating, lacks any investor access verification meaning that this might be a demo account and not a live trading account. For the moment results for this trading system on this unverified account are very short and therefore a comparison with a backtest of the same period is not useful. From an evidence verification perspective, the forex revolution fails to give any reliable evidence of long term profitability for their REVOBOT1 system. Besides, they mention several times that they made profit with the system (for example "we all made 24% more the next week" (shown below)) so why don't they show investor-access verified access to these accounts that allegedly made those profits ? I think you can answer this question.
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When it comes to the community approach of the forex revolution, I cannot tell you from the outside how good it is or if it has any effectiveness in improving trading systems. However, from the point of view of an experienced person in automated trading, I can tell you that community efforts - when not guided correctly - almost always end up with a bunch of short term modifications that are not based on statistically relevant information that end up taking the systems to a point where there is an obsession with short term draw downs and a fast implementation of unsound trading tactics. I do hope that the forex revolution achieves a better fate if this is really their objective.

Right now I can tell you that the forex revolution with its current expert called REVOBOT1 does not have enough evidence to say that the system is likely long term profitable. The system has very limited backtests (why don't they show 10 year tests ?) and extremely limited and unverified live tests that do not allow us to draw conclusions about the system's profitability. For this reason I consider the forex revolution not worth joining and REVOBOT1 not worth buying and testing. If they are truly serious about the development of their systems then they should add 10 year profitable backtests, 6 months of investor-access verified live testing results and then compare live and backtesting results to prove consistency. They should also add their current live testing results to myfxbook to confirm that the account is a live and not a demo trading account. Once they introduce this necessary changes I will be happy to change my review to reflect the new evidence. Meanwhile, the forex revolution seems to offer yet another expert with very limited and unreliable evidence of profitability. Remember that I am always happy to give systems positive reviews as long as they have the above mentioned evidence which is absolutely VITAL to say that any system has a high like hood of being long term profitable.

If you would like to know more about how you can create your own automated trading systems to achieve realistic profit and draw down targets please consider buying my ebook on automated trading or joining Asirikuy to receive all ebook purchase benefits, weekly updates, check the live accounts I am running with several expert advisors and get in the road towards long term success in the forex market using automated trading systems. I hope you enjoyed the article !

1 comment:

Unknown said...

Good article, I always enjoy reading your reviews. Here is a link to another foward test that someone is doing.

http://www.mt4i.com/users/revobot-bfr/stats

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